359
FXUS61 KLWX 280141
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
941 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF CAPE HATTERAS THIS EVENING, WITH
WARM ADVECTION-RELATED ASCENT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE 00Z
IAD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL FAVOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. ANY TEMPERATURE FALLS WILL BE
OFFSET BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THE SECOND HALF
OF THE NIGHT THOUGH. DID BLEND SOME MOS GUIDANCE INTO THE NBM
FORECAST, WHICH LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN OUTLYING
AREAS. MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S, THOUGH A FEW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD DROP INTO THE 20S WHERE IT REMAINS CLEAR
LONGER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. DRY
LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KEEP RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. DESPITE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOME
SHOWERS AROUND, SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
60S, WITH LOWER 70S MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL VA WHERE MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY.
THE STEADY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS MILD FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE 50S.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. IN ITS WAKE, CLOUDS WILL LINGER, BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
DOWNSLOPING FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 70S, PERHAPS
NEAR 80 IN SPOTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, PERHAPS NOT FALLING BELOW 60
IN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
MAY INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT WEST OF I-81.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BY SUNDAY, A LARGE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OFFSHORE AS LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. SUCH A
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY FLOW LOCALLY, AND HELP TO
ADVECT AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR MOST, BENEATH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK AND DECAYING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY, AND THEN TO THE CREST OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE
DAY SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD STAY DRY.
MEANWHILE, A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THEN INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ON MONDAY. AS
THIS SYSTEM'S UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY MONDAY, WITH AMPLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO PRESENT. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
FORM SHOULD BE WELL ORGANIZED, AND COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
SPC CURRENTLY HAS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON MONDAY.
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
OUR NORTH, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOST GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON SHOWERS
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY, BUT IF FASTER SOLUTIONS
WERE TO VERIFY, SOME RAIN COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SOME LOWER CIGS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES. MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS
WHERE APPROPRIATE, BUT ESPECIALLY NOT CONFIDENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE STEADY/HEAVY ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONDITIONS
TO MVFR. OVERALL, MRB HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AND NEAR-MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ASSUMING SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE SOME, MARGINAL LLWS IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT ABOVE THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION.
W/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DAYTIME GUSTS
OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS AT NIGHT.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPORARY DROPS TO SUB-VFR MAY
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS, AND THEN ON MONDAY IN
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS STARTING TO OCCUR OVER THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER, OWING TO
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING. AN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA
THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY. SOME SOUTHEASTERLY CHANNELING WAS ALSO
RESULTING IN GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT UP TO THE US 301 BRIDGE, BUT
THESE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS. NEAR SHORE GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20 KNOTS OR PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY, BUT COLD WATER RELATIVE TO WARMING AIR
TEMPS PROBABLY KEEPS MIXING AND GUSTS LOWER OVER THE WIDER AND
DEEPER WATERWAYS. OTHERWISE, A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITHIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
RH RECOVERIES MAY BE MODEST TONIGHT, ONLY RISING INTO THE 50S
AND 60S (PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES). A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS, HIGHER RHS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN SHOWERS. EXCEPT ALONG THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS, MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
GUSTY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER, RH VALUES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE
EACH DAY, GIVING LESS OF A CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN WILL
BE WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
541-543.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...DHOF/CJL
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/CJL/KJP
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/CJL/KJP
FIRE WEATHER...CJL/ADS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page