116
FXUS61 KLWX 281335
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY, THEN LINGER NEAR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MORNING UPDATE: STILL SEEING AN ABUNDANCE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE REGION OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO POP UP ON
RADAR. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
AREA- WIDE ARE STILL IN THE 12 TO 18 DEGREE RANGE, NOTHING SEEMS
TO BE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. THAT WILL BE THE
THEME FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING, BUT EVENTUALLY THINK THAT WE WILL
SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AS THE DAY WEARS ON, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MOST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR
AND NORTH OF I-66/US-50 GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED PLACEMENT OF THE
WARM FRONT AND BETTER FORCING NEAR AND NORTH OF IT. MOST AREAS
WILL PROBABLY SEE 0.10" OF RAIN OR LESS.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH LOW
TO MID 70S ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY
WHERE MORE BREAKS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. MOUNTAIN LOCALES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.
SHOWERS LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE
WARM FRONT, THOUGH IT COULD GET HUNG UP A BIT NEAR NE MD. GIVEN
SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST BREEZES, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY BEHIND/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
SATURDAY. DESPITE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, A STEADY DOWNSLOPING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN THIS YEAR'S FIRST
80-DEGREE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
A BROAD TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN
LOWERING HEIGHTS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN PLACE, WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR
THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH DAWN ON SUNDAY.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH'S FORWARD (EASTWARD) PROGRESSION WILL BE
SLOW OVERALL, THOUGH FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
STRENGTHENING DUE TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH A RIDGE OFF THE
COAST. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CURL BY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. MOST ACTIVITY MAY STAY CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE. BUT, A BROAD WARM SECTOR AND CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS
COUPLED WITH A WARM AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS COULD
RESULT IN ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE INCREASING, A LACK OF STRONGER FORCING AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH IN CHECK SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ANY
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES NOTED WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED IN THE DAYS AHEAD GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES.
MORE APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ENSUE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A
HIGHER POTENTIAL OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING THE
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP MIDDAY MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE 70S AND
POSSIBLE REACH 80 IN EASTERN PARTS OF VIRGINIA.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END AND MOVE FARTHER EAST AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL THROUGH THE 60S AND 50S AND EVENTUALLY OVERNIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND SLIDE TO
THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. LOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK NORTHWARD INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURNS UP AND OVER THE WARM FRONT AND WILL RESULT IN
LIMITED RAINFALL OR NONE WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT CONTINUOUS
WARMTH FROM THE SOUTH AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE REGION. SHOWERS COULD TAPER
AND END UPON SUNSET AND STABILIZATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS WILL BE
MILDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS MIDDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO QUICKLY RETURN THURSDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
TO THE NORTH AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST. HIGHS IN
THE 70S.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT TODAY, ANTECEDENT DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP RESTRICTIONS AT A MINIMUM. BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY MODERATELY HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUCH RESTRICTIONS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 OR TEMPO IN THE 12Z TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN
AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES DID RESULT IN -SHRA
INCLUSION EVEN WITHOUT PREVAILING RESTRICTIONS.
OTHERWISE, A PERIOD OF LLWS IS LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ PIVOTS OVERHEAD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE JUST WEST OF SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT AOB 10 KTS, THOUGH A BRIEF (FEW HOUR) WINDOW OF HIGHER
SPEEDS AND CORRESPONDING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL GUSTINESS IS LIKELY IN W/SW FLOW SATURDAY
(20-25 KTS) WITH VFR EXPECTED.
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD
FRONT, THOUGH VFR SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO TURN BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS ONCE AGAIN ECLIPSING 20-25 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SUB-VFR AT TIMES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING COULD RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MRB
AND CHO COULD BE MORESO MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON, WHILE IAD, DCA,
BWI AND MTN COULD BE MORESO IN THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING.
WINDS SOUTHWEST BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTS 25 KNOTS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WEST TO EAST LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. WINDS NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTS 20 KNOTS TUESDAY,
THEN NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WIDER WATERS OF THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE
BAY OFF SOUTHERN MD HAVE MOSTLY SUBSIDED THIS MORNING, ALLOWING
THE PREVIOUS SCA TO EXPIRE AT 8 AM.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA
OF FREQUENT GUSTS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID/UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER WHERE MIXING WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT. TONIGHT, A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE WIDER WATERS,
WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS MOST LIKELY OVER THESE WIDER
WATERS ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED
ESPECIALLY OVER/NEAR THE NORTHERN AND NARROWER WATERWAYS
SATURDAY. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE WATER
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN THE STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR THE SHORE. MARINERS SHOULD BE MINDFUL THAT ALTHOUGH
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM (AROUND 80 NEAR THE SHORE OR JUST
INLAND), WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL COLD (IN THE 40S AND 50S).
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF S/SW
GUSTINESS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SOUTHWEST SHIFTING NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTS 25 KNOTS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. NO MARINE HAZARDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF/CJL
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/CJL
MARINE...KLW/DHOF/CJL
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