763
FXUS61 KLWX 290758
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
SOUTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE NEAR BERMUDA, WHILE MULTIPLE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL CROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PULLING OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, THEN A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LIFT
INTO THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 07Z/3AM EDT, A WARM FRONT HAD REACHED ROUGHLY THE
I-66/US-50 CORRIDOR, AND WAS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY CONTINUING TO
LIFT TO THE NORTH. NEAR TERM TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THIS WARM FRONT SHOULD REACH THE MD/PA BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT, GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS, THESE
DOWNSLOPING BREEZES COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR FOR THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S,
WITH 70S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A FEW WEAK AND SUBTLE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW COULD ADD A LITTLE
VIGOR TO THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK AT TIMES, PERHAPS RESULTING IN
A FEW SPRINKLES. HOWEVER, FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND THE LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS IS DRY, SO HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF
THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY.
OF NOTE, THE SOURCE REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS TODAY IS WESTERN
NC WHERE THERE ARE ONGOING WILDFIRES. RAP/HRRR NEAR-SURFACE
SMOKE DENSITY AS WELL AS LATEST SATELLITE OBS/TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT PATCHY SMOKE WILL RIDE UP ALONG AND JUST ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE ARCING EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE METROS
BEFORE DISSIPATING/DISPERSING. A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION EVIDENT IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND 1,000-2,000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
LIKELY KEEPS THIS SMOKE AT A HIGH ENOUGH CONCENTRATION TO BE
ABLE TO NOTICE VISIBLY (AS WELL AS SMELL), DESPITE THE STEADY
SURFACE WINDS. THE NAM IS STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT WITH THIS
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION (AND MORE PRONOUNCED FURTHER SOUTH), WITH
THE GFS MIXING IT OUT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, SO THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW QUICKLY ANY SMOKE/HAZE DISPERSES.
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. DESPITE THE
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR, ENOUGH MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE LIFT WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF I-81 TONIGHT. THE
THICKENING OF CLOUD COVER COUPLED WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S (LOWER 50S MOUNTAINS).
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE MS/TN/OH
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY, WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT. ONE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE FROM IOWA TO LOWER MICHIGAN, WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING NEAR DALLAS AND LIFTING INTO THE OZARKS. EACH
OF THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE TIED TO SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. LOCALLY, A LEAD SHORTWAVE WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM (CURRENTLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT OF THE GULF COAST
AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING) WILL PIVOT OVERHEAD AS IT BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. THIS WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/CATOCTINS.
DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR FURTHER EAST AND THE WEAKENING OF THE UPPER
WAVE DRAWS INTO QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WILL BE OBSERVED
TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AS MORE APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN
ENSUES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, BUT ADDED CLOUD
COVER LIKELY KEEPS HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
SATURDAY (AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES WARMER).
BY MONDAY, THE CONGLOMERATE UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND THEN
CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS RATHER POTENT.
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEPTH, SPEED, AND
AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
SOME SUGGESTING A NEGATIVE TILT. THE MORE AMPLIFIED GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEARBY OR OVERHEAD
MONDAY EVENING, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERHAPS MULTIPLE ROUNDS. THIS MAY ALSO
CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW A BIT, WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE
(BENEFICIAL) RAIN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TROUGH EVOLUTION,
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON (1) MODEST SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH BROKEN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH RESULTING IN 500-1,000
J/KG OF MLCAPE, AND (2) STRONG SW FLOW OF 40-50 KNOTS IN THE
850-700 HPA LAYER. THESE FACTORS WOULD LEND TO A RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALL
SEVERE MODES (I.E. DAMAGING WIND, HAIL, AND TORNADOES) WOULD BE
POSSIBLE, BUT HAIL AND TORNADOES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IF STORMS
WERE TO REMAIN MORE DISCRETE AND/OR SURFACE WINDS WERE TO
BECOME MORE BACKED (THIS IS MOST LIKELY IN THE MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO, AS IS A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OR LINES OF CONVECTION
WHICH WOULD HEIGHTEN THE DAMAGING WIND RISK).
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT TO OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S WITH THOSE IN THE
ALLEGHENIES STAYING IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TRACKING EASTWARD. AS
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND RETURN
FLOW FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING
OFFSHORE USHERS IN WARM AIR, TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 70S FOR
MOST ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MAY EXCEED 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A SPRINKLE CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY FOR
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME. GUSTY W/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SOME LOWER (THOUGH LIKELY
STILL VFR) CEILINGS MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME
SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT TIMES.
WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THOUGH EXACT
TIMING AND DURATION ARE IN QUESTION. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR. OTHERWISE,
VFR PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NW.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHEASTERLY, GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS A
LOW-LEVEL JET PULLS AWAY. THIS AFTERNOON, MIXING WILL INCREASE.
HOWEVER, AIR TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN WATER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST GUSTS NEAR THE SHORE AND/OR OVER THE
NARROWER WATERWAYS. HAVE HELD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME AND OPTED INSTEAD FOR A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT BOTH THE NEAR SHORE GUSTS, AND THE HAZARDS OF BOATING
IN COLD WATER (WHICH IS STILL IN THE 40S AND 50S).
SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT OUT OF
THE S/SW MAINLY OVER THE WIDER WATERS, BUT EVEN AT NIGHT AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE WATER. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT POSE SIMILAR ISSUES, SO ADDITIONAL MWSS OR SHORT FUSE SCAS
MAY BE NECESSARY. MOST RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY,
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MUCH MORE LIKELY MONDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES. WINDS INCREASE
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT AGAIN WARM AIR OVER COOL WATER
DRAWS MIXING INTO QUESTION. WINDS THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
PERHAPS NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SCA CRITERIA WINDS ARE LIKELY BOTH
DAYS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
PERHAPS 25 MPH, COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER, AS WELL
AS MARGINAL FUEL MOISTURES (RECENT VERY LIGHT RAIN NORTH) CAST
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE EXTENT OF THE THREAT, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
WIND MAY BE MORE MARGINAL AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE MIXING
MAY BE MUTED BY THE INCREASED CLOUDS.
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, THE BEST OVERLAP OF LOWER RH, LOW FUEL
MOISTURE, AND BREEZY WINDS APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND CATOCTIN MOUNTAINS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH AN SPS
AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND STATE PARTNERS.
OF NOTE, A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AROUND 1,000-2,000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND LIKELY KEEPS ANY SMOKE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, DESPITE THE STEADY BREEZES. THE NAM IS
STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL INVERSION (AND
MORE PRONOUNCED FURTHER SOUTH), WITH THE GFS MIXING IT OUT BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
INCREASING RH AND EVENTUALLY MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AFTER TODAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SENSITIVE TIDAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS BALTIMORE, ANNAPOLIS, AND HAVRE DE
GRACE MAY REACH ACTION STAGE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASED TIDAL ANOMALIES
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH ANOMALIES PEAKING ON MONDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ530>534-536-537-539>543.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/DHOF
MARINE...AVS/DHOF
FIRE WEATHER...DHOF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AVS
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