876
FXUS61 KLWX 291810
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
210 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE NEAR
BERMUDA, WHILE MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
PULLING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE FA, GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA, THOUGH THE THICKNESS IS DECREASING WHICH IS SEEN IN
SFC TEMPS INCREASING OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. RESIDING IN THE
WARM SECTOR WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WITH 70S OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A FEW AREAS OBSERVED SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY THUS FAR, BUT
THAT POTENTIAL HAS IN LARGE ENDED WITH THE WAVE MOVING EAST AND
SURFACE TD DEPRESSIONS APPROACHING 30-35 DEGREES.
OF NOTE, THE SOURCE REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS TODAY IS WESTERN
NC WHERE THERE ARE ONGOING WILDFIRES. RAP/HRRR NEAR-SURFACE
SMOKE DENSITY AS WELL AS LATEST SATELLITE OBS/TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT PATCHY SMOKE WILL RIDE UP ALONG AND JUST ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE ARCING EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE METROS
BEFORE DISSIPATING/DISPERSING. A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION EVIDENT IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND 1,000-2,000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
LIKELY KEEPS THIS SMOKE AT A HIGH ENOUGH CONCENTRATION TO BE
ABLE TO NOTICE VISIBLY (AS WELL AS SMELL), DESPITE THE STEADY
SURFACE WINDS.
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. DESPITE THE
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR, ENOUGH MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE LIFT WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF I-81 TONIGHT. THE
THICKENING OF CLOUD COVER COUPLED WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S (LOWER 50S MOUNTAINS).
ANY SHOWERS MAY NOT BE TIL LATE AS SATURATION OF THE COLUMN IS
NEEDED. THIS IS NEARLY 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO LOWS FOR LATE
MARCH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE MS/TN/OH
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY, WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT. ONE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE FROM IOWA TO LOWER MICHIGAN, WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING NEAR DALLAS AND LIFTING INTO THE OZARKS. EACH
OF THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE TIED TO SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. LOCALLY, A LEAD SHORTWAVE WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM (CURRENTLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT OF THE GULF COAST
AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING) WILL PIVOT OVERHEAD AS IT BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. THIS WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/CATOCTINS.
DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR FURTHER EAST AND THE WEAKENING OF THE UPPER
WAVE DRAWS INTO QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WILL BE OBSERVED
TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AS MORE APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN
ENSUES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, BUT ADDED CLOUD
COVER LIKELY KEEPS HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
SATURDAY (AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES WARMER).
BY MONDAY, THE CONGLOMERATE UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND THEN
CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS RATHER POTENT.
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEPTH, SPEED, AND
AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
SOME SUGGESTING A NEGATIVE TILT. THE MORE AMPLIFIED GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEARBY OR OVERHEAD
MONDAY EVENING, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERHAPS MULTIPLE ROUNDS. THIS MAY ALSO
CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW A BIT, WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE
(BENEFICIAL) RAIN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TROUGH EVOLUTION,
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON (1) MODEST SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH BROKEN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH RESULTING IN 500-1,000
J/KG OF MLCAPE, AND (2) STRONG SW FLOW OF 40-50 KNOTS IN THE
850-700 HPA LAYER. THESE FACTORS WOULD LEND TO A RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALL
SEVERE MODES (I.E. DAMAGING WIND, HAIL, AND TORNADOES) WOULD BE
POSSIBLE, BUT HAIL AND TORNADOES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IF STORMS
WERE TO REMAIN MORE DISCRETE AND/OR SURFACE WINDS WERE TO
BECOME MORE BACKED (THIS IS MOST LIKELY IN THE MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO, AS IS A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OR LINES OF CONVECTION
WHICH WOULD HEIGHTEN THE DAMAGING WIND RISK). SPC HAS MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT TO OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES ACROSS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ALLEGHENIES IF ENOUGH MOISTURE LAGS INTO
THE COLD AIR.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY, LEADING TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES, NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST, AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST,
WITH LOWER 40S IN DOWNTOWN DC AND BALTIMORE.
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY, AND THEN EVENTUALLY
CONTINUE ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING WILL START
TO BUILD ALOFT. SUCH A CONFIGURATION WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION (LARGELY IN THE ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION) WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MUCH MILDER NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN CLIMB DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SKIES ARE
FORECAST TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
BY FRIDAY, THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL TRACK OFF INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL IN NATURE. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT TO START TO STALL OUT. WITH
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR VICINITY, ENSEMBLES SHOW A WIDE
RANGE OF POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S (IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH) TO WELL INTO THE 80S
(IF WE REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT, THERE'S ALSO A HUGE AMOUNT OF
SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE SPRINKLE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE WAVE MOVING EAST AS
OF 17Z. OTHERWISE, GUSTY W/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SOME LOWER (THOUGH LIKELY STILL
VFR) CEILINGS MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.
WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR. OTHERWISE, VFR PERSISTS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NW.
VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
AS MIXING INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON, A SUBTLE UPTICK IN WINDS
OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, AIR TEMPERATURES MUCH
WARMER THAN WATER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST GUSTS
NEAR THE SHORE AND/OR OVER THE NARROWER WATERWAYS. HAVE HELD OFF
ON SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WILL SEE WHAT HE WINDS
DO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND IF AN MWS IS NEEDED. ONE
OTHER HAZARD IS IF BOATING TODAY, THE WATERS ARE STILL COLD (40S
TO 50S).
SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT OUT OF
THE S/SW MAINLY OVER THE WIDER WATERS, BUT EVEN AT NIGHT AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE WATER. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT POSE SIMILAR ISSUES, SO ADDITIONAL MWSS OR SHORT FUSE SCAS
MAY BE NECESSARY. MOST RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY,
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MUCH MORE LIKELY MONDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES. WINDS INCREASE
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT AGAIN WARM AIR OVER COOL WATER
DRAWS MIXING INTO QUESTION. WINDS THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
PERHAPS NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN BOTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
PERHAPS 25 MPH, COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER, AS WELL AS
MARGINAL FUEL MOISTURES (RECENT VERY LIGHT RAIN NORTH) CAST
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE EXTENT OF THE THREAT, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
WIND MAY BE MORE MARGINAL AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE
MIXING MAY BE MUTED BY THE INCREASED CLOUDS.
HAVE MAINTAINED AN SPS AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES AND STATE PARTNERS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DUE
TO THE OVERLAP OF LOWER RH, LOW FUEL MOISTURE, AND BREEZY WINDS.
OF NOTE, A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AROUND 1,000-2,000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND LIKELY KEEPS ANY SMOKE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, DESPITE THE STEADY BREEZES. THE NAM IS
STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL INVERSION (AND
MORE PRONOUNCED FURTHER SOUTH), WITH THE GFS MIXING IT OUT BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
INCREASING RH AND EVENTUALLY MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AFTER TODAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SENSITIVE TIDAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS BALTIMORE, ANNAPOLIS, AND HAVRE DE
GRACE MAY REACH ACTION STAGE MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED TIDAL ANOMALIES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
ANOMALIES PEAKING ON MONDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ534-543.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...DHOF/CPB
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...KJP/CPB
MARINE...KJP/CPB
FIRE WEATHER...LWX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page