971
FXUS61 KLWX 010135
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO THE NORTH NEAR NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEP
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVES INTO CANADA. A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY, THEN MEANDER NEARBY
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS BY SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY STAYED SUB-SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE PROPAGATING FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY ACROSS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. RESIDUAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAS FOSTERED THE CONTINUED THREAT OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ANY SEVERE RISK
HAS SHIFTED INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WHERE SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW). THIS BROAD
SWATH OF MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION WILL FINALLY EXIT OFF INTO
THE EASTERN SHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. IN THE WAKE,
LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A SHIELD OF STRATIFORM RAIN BACK
ALL THE WAY TO WEST OF I-81. THIS WILL SLOWLY PRESS EASTWARD IN
TIME BEFORE CLEARING OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EVENTUALLY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SCOUR OUT ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILLING IN BEHIND.
STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT, USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
AIR (WITH TEMPERATURE DROPS OF 25-35 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING).
SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH IN THE VICINITY OF NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NW'LY BREEZES TUESDAY WILL TURN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COOL AIR WEDGE
DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. A WARM/WEDGE
FRONT DEVELOPING EAST OF THIS LOW SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LIFTING TEMPERATURES FROM JUST
BELOW NORMAL TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE LIFTING FRONT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE PRETTY FAR REMOVED FROM FORCING OTHER
THAN ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT - FRI WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT GENERALLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BROAD SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
SOME RESIDUAL THREAT OF VCTS IS POSSIBLE AROUND KBWI AND KMTN,
WHILE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE OTHER
TERMINALS. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.
NW FLOW WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SOME BRIEFLY STRONGER GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR AND LIGHTER NW
FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME E TO SE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS A
COOL AIR WEDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD.
GUSTS TO 20 KT FRI AND SAT AND SHIFTING WINDS AS BACKDOOR FRONT
DROPS IN. SHOWERS LIKELY ON FRI AND POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
MARINE
A BROAD SWATH OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE ADJOINING TRIBUTARIES. AN ARRAY OF
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AROUND THE NEXT
HOUR BEFORE SUCH STORMS EXIT INTO THE EASTERN SHORE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHTER THE SECOND HALF
OF TUESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCA LEVEL GUSTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY
LATE WEDNESDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED GIVEN THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW TODAY. HOWEVER, MOST SHOULD EVEN FALL SHORT OF REACHING
ACTION STAGE. BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT, WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY LEADING TO TIDAL ANOMALIES FALLING
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
SYNOPSIS...BRO/DHOF/CPB
NEAR TERM...DHOF/CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/CPB
MARINE...LFR/BRO/CPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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