657
FXUS61 KLWX 011421 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1021 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH NEAR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND
MOVES INTO CANADA. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY, THEN MEANDER NEARBY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS BY SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE/EVAPORATE
RATHER QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH RAPIDLY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
PREVIOUS AFD...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY, BUT IT WILL BE A SOLID 20 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN IT
WAS MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S STRONG COLD FRONT.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL (30S AND 40S)
WITH SOME CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LATE WELL AHEAD OF
TROUGHING DIGGING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE PLAINS, WINDS TURN EAST TO SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COOL AIR WEDGE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY. A WARM/WEDGE FRONT DEVELOPING EAST OF THIS LOW
SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
LIFTING TEMPERATURES FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LIFTING FRONT DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE PRETTY FAR
REMOVED FROM FORCING OTHER THAN ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT.
THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN, DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT AND ANY WAVES RIDING ALONG IT, AS WELL
AS THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONALLY, ENOUGH HEAT AND SHEAR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS, BUT DOWNSLOPING WIND DIRECTIONS
COULD HINDER COVERAGE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL YIELD DAILY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO 70S FOR MOST WITH THOSE IN
THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA RISING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S WITH ONLY THOSE ALONG AND ALLEGHENIES STAYING IN THE 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
EXITING OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DRY OUT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S AND 60S (40S IN THE MOUNTAINS) WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES 20S AND 30S.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR AND NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER
AND MORE NORTHERLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, THEN EASTERLY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER
CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS A COOL AIR WEDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES THROUGH ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY MORNING
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SHIFT
TO SOUTHERLY SATURDAY, GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN NW
FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHTER
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCA LEVEL GUSTS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL NEAR SCA CRITERIA IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH TODAY DUE TO
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY, TIDAL ANAMOLIES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE DUE TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS. SENSITIVE TIDAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS BALTIMORE, ANNAPOLIS,
AND HAVRE DE GRACE WILL REACH ACTION STAGE AND NEAR MINOR FLOOD
STAGE THURSDAY MORNING.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
536.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/LFR
MARINE...AVS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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