302  
FXUS61 KLWX 011928  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
328 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.  
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST BEFORE  
MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONTAL ZONE STALLS  
NEARBY INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WHILE  
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM GARRETT  
COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO FRONT ROYAL ALONG A RETREATING FRONTAL  
ZONE. T-STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS FRONTAL ZONE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN  
PENNSYLVANIA. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS  
THE AREA AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD QUIET  
OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LACK OF FORCING  
MECHANISM.  
 
IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS WARMER FRI WHICH MEANS THERE WILL BE  
MORE INSTABILITY TO FUEL T-STORMS. A LEE-SIDE TROF DEVELOPING  
IN THE AFTERNOON MAY HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS  
AND T-STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95, ALTHOUGH CAM GUIDANCE  
SEEMS LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT STORM DEVELOPMENT THAN TODAY. THIS  
MAY BE DUE TO POTENTIAL DRYING/MIXING OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS.  
GIVEN VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,  
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WEATHER WILL TURN WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED SAT AFTERNOON  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS  
HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE  
MIDWEST AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE A  
LARGE MOISTURE PLUME AND AREAS OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/UPPER LEVEL  
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS/RAIN AND MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN WILL LOCK AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE  
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD  
OF THE FORECAST. THE ULL WILL BE TO OUR WEST FOR MUCH OF THE  
PERIOD, WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S THROUGHOUT  
THE PERIOD, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN CONTINUE TO  
INCREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR 4 INCHES  
REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT (IAD IS DOWN  
NEARLY 33" GOING BACK TO 2021), HOPEFULLY THIS RAIN IS MORE  
BENEFICIAL THAN PROBLEMATIC. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW  
QUICKLY THE ULL PULLS AWAY MIDWEEK. IF AREAS GET SEVERAL ROUNDS  
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME, THERE COULD BE A FLOODING  
THREAT, BUT NOTHING IS STANDING OUT AT THIS POINT. SAME WITH  
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, NOTHING STANDS OUT AT THIS POINT, BUT  
EVENTUALLY THIS WILL EJECT EAST, AND THERE COULD BE A SEVERE  
THREAT WHEN IT EVENTUALLY DOES DEPART.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
SCATTERED T-STORMS TODAY AND FRI, BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS  
SATURDAY. HIGH PROBABILITY OF SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY.  
 
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS  
SUNDAY BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY. WINDS  
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS SATURDAY IN  
SSW TO S FLOW. SMWS MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED.  
 
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH GUSTS LARGELY BELOW SCA  
CRITERIA. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND  
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.  
 

 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DC...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...LFR  
NEAR TERM...LFR  
SHORT TERM...LFR  
LONG TERM...CJL  
AVIATION...LFR/CJL  
MARINE...LFR/CJL  
 
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