432
FXUS61 KLWX 020125
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
925 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST BEFORE
MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONTAL ZONE STALLS
NEARBY INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WHILE
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN TOWARD LAKE HURON THIS EVENING, WHILE AN ATTENDANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR (UPPER 50S TO 60S DEWPOINTS). EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN MD AND THE WV PANHANDLE HAVE LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE TO LAG TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN AND THE WV PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT,
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. A BRIEF SHOWER COULD BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
60S FOR MOST, WITH UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS WARMER FRI WHICH MEANS THERE WILL BE
MORE INSTABILITY TO FUEL T-STORMS. A LEE-SIDE TROF DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON MAY HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95, ALTHOUGH CAM GUIDANCE
SEEMS LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT STORM DEVELOPMENT THAN TODAY. THIS
MAY BE DUE TO POTENTIAL DRYING/MIXING OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
GIVEN VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WEATHER WILL TURN WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE A
LARGE MOISTURE PLUME AND AREAS OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/RAIN AND MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN WILL LOCK AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
OF THE FORECAST. THE ULL WILL BE TO OUR WEST FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR 4 INCHES
REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT (IAD IS DOWN
NEARLY 33" GOING BACK TO 2021), HOPEFULLY THIS RAIN IS MORE
BENEFICIAL THAN PROBLEMATIC. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
QUICKLY THE ULL PULLS AWAY MIDWEEK. IF AREAS GET SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME, THERE COULD BE A FLOODING
THREAT, BUT NOTHING IS STANDING OUT AT THIS POINT. SAME WITH
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, NOTHING STANDS OUT AT THIS POINT, BUT
EVENTUALLY THIS WILL EJECT EAST, AND THERE COULD BE A SEVERE
THREAT WHEN IT EVENTUALLY DOES DEPART.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED T-STORMS TODAY AND FRI, BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
SATURDAY. HIGH PROBABILITY OF SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
SUNDAY BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS SATURDAY IN
SSW TO S FLOW. SMWS MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED.
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH GUSTS LARGELY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/KJP
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...LFR/CJL
MARINE...LFR/CJL
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