335
FXUS61 KLWX 030040
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
840 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST TONIGHT, THEN
GRADUALLY CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY RETURN BRIEFLY FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
KLWX RADAR LOOP AS OF 8:30 PM SHOWS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR NORTH OF I-66. SHOWERS
TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL TRACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW:
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 INTO
SOUTHERN MARYLAND WILL BE AREAS THAT COULD ENCOUNTER THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TIME PERIOD. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COMBINE TO
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO THE WEST
OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY. AREAS TO
THE EAST OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL BE
MORE PRONE MIDDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE WEST, TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST, AND
IS ACCOMPANIED BY MORE DEVELOPMENT, RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVIER AND
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TWO-THIRDS
OF OUR REGION, CONCENTRATED BETWEEN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BOTH SATURDAY DURING THE DAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL,
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CUT OFF AS IT STALLS JUST WEST
OF THE APPALACHIANS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY NEEDED IN ORDER TO REALIZE A MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE HAIL THREAT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LKS TUE. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
REGION AND MOISTURE BEING FUNNELED INTO OUR AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERSISTENT RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH TUE. BY TUE NIGHT/WED, MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WED-
THU. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE-TROUGH MAY DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THU NIGHT-FRI BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CIGS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER CENTRAL VA
(NEAR KCHO) LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING (FL010-020), WITH
SPOTTIER/BRIEFER MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH DURING THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE BECOME S TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT FELT THE
POTENTIAL WAS ENOUGH NOT JUST FOR THUNDER BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY
GUSTY WINDS IN/NEAR CONVECTION.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN BOUTS OF SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS, AND LOWER CEILINGS. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHERLY HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME MARGINAL LLWS
POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE AND LLJS AROUND 35
KTS PIVOT OVERHEAD.
EXPECT FREQUENT SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS MON-TUE WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS LIKELY.
MARINE
SCAS ARE ISSUED FOR THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
WITH A BRIEF BREAK LATER THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND NORTHERN POTOMAC. HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES OVER THE WIDER WATERS OF THE MID BAY TONIGHT, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON AND TUE DUE TO TIGHT GRADIENT ON
SRLY FLOW. SMWS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ530>533-535>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...AVS/KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW/DHOF
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page