495
FXUS61 KLWX 031856
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST FROM SOUTHERN OHIO TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
GETTING KICKED TO THE EAST BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BY WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO, A LOT OF THE THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SINCE RETREATED NORTHWARD INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS LED TO INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARMTH RIGHT
AT MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. THUS, SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE BUILDING QUICKLY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MET BY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WHICH COULD BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED
OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING QUICKLY; THUS, THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANY FLOODING SEEMS TO LIE WITHIN THE REALMS OF ANY TRAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN OTHER WORDS, CONVECTION MOVING
OVER THE SAME PLACE. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE MIDDLE
TWO- THIRDS OF OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE WESTERN
THREE-QUARTERS OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. TEMPERATURES HAVE
TOPPED OUT OR WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WIDESPREAD
FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND AREAS TO THE EAST.
FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT, THE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. DURING THIS LENGTHY
DURATION, THE TWO FEATURES WILL PROVIDE THE ADDED LIFT TO ANY
INSTABILITY TO ENABLE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER
TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM
ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY, THEN MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MARYLAND, THE METROS OF WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE, AND
NORTHEAST VIRGINIA LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ON
SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY DUE TO AN EARLY AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. HIGHS MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR
REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF OUR REGION IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
ALL IN ALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
SUNDAY, MANY PLACES COULD ENCOUNTER ANY COMBINATION OF THE
FOLLOWING GIVEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, SURFACE COLD FRONT, AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORT: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 60 MPH,
LARGE HAIL, FUNNEL CLOUD OR ISOLATED TORNADO, DOWNPOUR OF RAIN
10 TO 15 MINUTES IN DURATION, OR FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
WHILE WE MAY BE LOOKING AT A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, THIS PERIOD AND
CARRYING ON INTO THE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. THIS IS SO BECAUSE OF THE INFREQUENCY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEVERITY OR
INTENSITY, AND WIND GUST MAGNITUDE INITIATED BY THE SAME LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, SURFACE FRONT, AND UPPER LOW. AS A MATTER OF
FACT, SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
REFIRING OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY MONDAY AND AFTERNOON DUE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO THE
NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LKS TUE MORNING AND
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SCT-NMRS INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL COOL
POOL. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE
AREA THU OR THU NIGHT DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY AT CHO, MRB, IAD INTO EARLY EVENING.
THESE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COULD CARRY EASTWARD INTO DCA, BWI AND
MTN SHOULD THE CONVECTION REACH THESE TERMINALS. IF THIS
CONVECTION DOES NOT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, THEN THERE
IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND MOVES QUICKLY INTO THESE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SOUTH 10 TO 15
KNOTS GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. WINDS SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY SOUTHEAST 5
TO 10 KNOTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT FREQUENT SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS TUE WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS LIKELY. SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WED, BUT INSTABILITY AND
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS.
MARINE
SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY. WINDS SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT COULD GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE WATERS. SCA POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINDS, WAVES, LIGHTNING, AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES.
SCT T-STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT TUE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-
SCA.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
541-543.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW/DHOF
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/KLW/DHOF
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