211
FXUS61 KLWX 040116
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST FROM SOUTHERN OHIO TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE GETTING KICKED
TO THE EAST BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY GRADUALLY APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING THIS EVENING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER WHILE RIDGING PERSISTS OFF THE COAST. CONVECTION HAS
STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF SOUTHEAST OF I-95, WHICH IS EAST OF
A SURFACE TROUGH AND FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE APPROACHING
SYNOPTIC FORCING. IT'S MOST UNCERTAIN IF THIS AREA GETS ANY RAIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND IF SO, IT COULD BE CLOSER TO MORNING.
OTHERWISE, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED AS
REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER AREAS WHICH HAVE BEEN
WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
OCCURRING, BUT STORMS ARE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH, COMBINED WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, TO PREVENT ANY FLOODING.
THE NEXT ROUND OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP FROM ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, LIKELY REACHING THE AREA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES OF ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GRADUALLY
PROGRESSING TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY DUE TO AN EARLY
AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. HIGHS
MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
WESTERN TWO- THIRDS OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
WHILE WE MAY BE LOOKING AT A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, THIS PERIOD AND
CARRYING ON INTO THE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. THIS IS SO BECAUSE OF THE INFREQUENCY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEVERITY OR
INTENSITY, AND WIND GUST MAGNITUDE INITIATED BY THE SAME LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, SURFACE FRONT, AND UPPER LOW. AS A MATTER OF
FACT, SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
REFIRING OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY MONDAY AND AFTERNOON DUE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO THE
NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LKS TUE MORNING AND
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SCT-NMRS INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL COOL
POOL. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE
AREA THU OR THU NIGHT DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AT 9 PM.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH FORM NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS AN OVERALL LOWER RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
CURRENT RADAR AND MODELS SUGGEST THIS NEXT WAVE IS MOST LIKELY
TO AFFECT CHO, IAD, AND MRB, WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
QUICKLY ANY PRECIPITATION REACHES DCA/BWI/MTN. WHILE THERE COULD
BE A WINDOW OF ACTIVITY FROM 04-06Z, STEADIER RAIN MAY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 09Z. BESIDES THE RAIN, CEILINGS EVENTUALLY
LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE
FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT. DETAILS BECOME MORE MURKY,
ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL.
EXPECT FREQUENT SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS TUE WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS LIKELY. SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WED, BUT INSTABILITY AND
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS.
MARINE
ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE CONTRACTED TO THE WIDER WATERS OF THE
BAY THIS EVENING, WITH SIMILAR SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH EXPANSION POSSIBLE TO ALL WATERS GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SCA POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RESULTING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINDS, WAVES, LIGHTNING, AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES.
SCT T-STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT TUE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-
SCA.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532-540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
541-543.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...ADS/KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW/DHOF
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/KLW
MARINE...ADS/LFR/KLW
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