105
FXUS61 KLWX 041838
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
238 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MAY FOLLOW BRIEFLY FOR
WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH LATE
IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LINGER OR SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MEANDER AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS THICK MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS BREAK FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, ADDED SUNSHINE IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
CUMULUS CONGESTUS TO FORM IN THE WAKE OR TO THE WEST OF THE
THICK CLOUD COVER. THIS ADDITIONAL HEATING AND NEARBY MID-LEVEL
ENERGY TO THE WEST COULD RESULT IN SOME OF THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS
TO BUILD INTO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. THE LATTER PART
OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE AND LESS POTENT COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN TERMS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
ON RADAR ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND AS WELL
AS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT NEAR
WASHINGTON D.C. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
MID-EVENING HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WAINS AND THE ATMOSPHERE
BRIEFLY RE-STABILIZES ITSELF FROM ANY CONVECTION OR DRY AIR
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD FORM
OVERNIGHT IN MANY PLACES AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERS AT THE
SURFACE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TO
THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND A JET STREAK ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A MORE
ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY IN OUR REGION. THE
POSSIBILITY IS THERE THAT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF
OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON AS WE MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
IN THE MORNING INSTEAD OF A THICK WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SCATTERED THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING, BEFORE WANING AND
DISSIPATING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY EVENING.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD FINALLY
BE MAKING ITS WAY TO OUR NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY AS THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW
OVERRUNS A WARMING SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH ANY ADDED HEATING.
HIGHS 50S AND 60S IN THE WEST AND 70S TO 80 IN THE EAST.
CONVECTION MOVES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE UPPER LOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER LOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WED WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVERHEAD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE-TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE REGION THU AND FORM A CLOSED LOW BY FRI. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE CDFNT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE
NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AT THE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
PLENTIFUL. CIGS COULD DROP TO IFR TO LIFR LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MIDDAY MONDAY,
THEN MORE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP. SIMILAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH LOWERING FREEZING
LEVELS, EVEN SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.
FAIR WEATHER WED. NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THU
WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO THE AREA.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED OVER THE WIDER
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, AS WELL AS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SE FLOW COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI IN A
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ530-
531-538>540-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
536.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW/DHOF
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page