151
FXUS61 KLWX 050126
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
926 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MAY FOLLOW BRIEFLY FOR
WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH LATE
IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS DRAPED NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CREST THIS
EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE IS
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
OCCUR WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL.
ONE STORM MAY GRAZE GARRETT COUNTY, BUT OTHERWISE THESE STORMS
WILL NOT AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN
ACROSS THE BALTIMORE METRO. THIS WILL BE THE GENERAL AREA FOR
LIGHT SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE WILL SPREAD WESTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LOWER. FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP, WHETHER
FROM THE LOWERING CEILINGS OR IN CLEAR AREAS THAT REACH THEIR
DEW POINT. WHILE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRATUS WILL PREVAIL. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS, WHILE WESTERN AREAS DROP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TO
THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND A JET STREAK ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A MORE
ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY IN OUR REGION. THE
POSSIBILITY IS THERE THAT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF
OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON AS WE MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
IN THE MORNING INSTEAD OF A THICK WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SCATTERED THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING, BEFORE WANING AND
DISSIPATING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY EVENING.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD FINALLY
BE MAKING ITS WAY TO OUR NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY AS THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW
OVERRUNS A WARMING SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH ANY ADDED HEATING.
HIGHS 50S AND 60S IN THE WEST AND 70S TO 80 IN THE EAST.
CONVECTION MOVES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE UPPER LOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER LOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WED WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVERHEAD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE-TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE REGION THU AND FORM A CLOSED LOW BY FRI. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE CDFNT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE
NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER NEAR BWI/MTN THIS EVENING. THIS
SHOULD BE THE GENERAL AREA FOR ISOLATED SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE NIGHT, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE MAIN AVIATION
HAZARD WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BY LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG,
ALTHOUGH CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STRATUS WILL PREVAIL.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MIDDAY MONDAY, THEN MORE SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH LOWERING FREEZING
LEVELS, EVEN SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.
FAIR WEATHER WED. NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THU
WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO THE AREA.
MARINE
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ON THE
WIDER WATERS OF THE BAY, BUT OTHERWISE S/SE WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SE FLOW COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI IN A
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
541-543.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...ADS/KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW/DHOF
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/KLW
MARINE...ADS/LFR/KLW
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