875
FXUS61 KLWX 051854
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
254 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN PULL OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY. A POTENT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO AND ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY FOLLOW
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISOLATED SEVERE T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH CURRENT SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THE MAIN SEVERE WX POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS WILL BE TIED TO THE LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING NEAR
RALEIGH NC. SHORTWAVE-TROUGH LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST VA INTO
WESTERN VA AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO ENCOURAGE
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HREF
FIELDS SUGGEST A BROKEN TO SOLID LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
FROM NEAR FREDERICK MD SOUTH TO FREDERICKSBURG. GIVEN COOLING
ALOFT AND SOME ROTATION ALREADY SEEN ON RADAR, A TORNADO AND
HAIL THREAT EXIST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT SHEAR PROFILES ARE
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR SEVERE WX POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 21Z-02Z.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR LIFT NORTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA
AFTER 02Z.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING INTO PA TUE WITH MAIN FOCUS OF T-STORM
ACTIVITY SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST, BUT STILL WITH SCT SHOWERS
AND/OR T-STORMS POSSIBLE. WITH LESS INSTABILITY AVAILABLE,
SEVERE WX RISK SEEMS LOWER. TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUE NIGHT WITH DRYING EXPECTED.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CAN'T COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE EXITING THE REGIONS TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PIVOT TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE FRONT FORECAST TO BE LOCATED DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINA'S
ON FRIDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO END OUT THE WORK WEEK.
FOR THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, HOWEVER, A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST WITH THOSE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 60S. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
ON FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 60S (50S MTNS) WITH ONLY THOSE
IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND IN THE METROS REACHING
THE 70S. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME. FREQ LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ISOLATED LARGE IS POSSIBLE.
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TUE. FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIPITATION, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
FREQ LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT TODAY THROUGH TUE WITH
SCATTERED T-STORMS. SMWS MAY BE REQUIRED.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THURSDAY.
WINDS NEAR BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/LFR
MARINE...AVS/LFR
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