065
FXUS61 KLWX 070054
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
854 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY FOLLOW FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW,
A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN/SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND ALLEGHENIES. THIS RAIN COULD PUSH A BIT
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE MD PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN VA
AREAS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, THOSE SOUTH OF I-66 AND IN THE
CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT LITTLE CAPE IS EVIDENT IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS ABOVE -10C. LOWS TONIGHT SETTLE IN THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS, WITH 40S IN THE ALLEGHENIES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER-LEVEL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY,
AND THE COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS, WESTERLY FLOW, AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS ALONG
WITH SOME SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE 70S/NEAR 80 FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
BEFORE PASSING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND STRENGTH.
GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING, AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. THE EXACT POSITION OF WHERE THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS WILL DICTATE HOW STRONG THE SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE
FRONT, AND CONSEQUENTLY HOW QUICKLY THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
CAN MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY,
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A BLOCKY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK,
MEANING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME PREDICTABILITY ISSUES. ON FRIDAY, A
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
TREND TOWARD A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG OR OFF THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO
THE TROUGH, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN ITS
PLACEMENT. THIS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THERE ARE ANY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS LONG AS THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS TO THE EAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. A
DECAYING COLD FRONT MAY DROP TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY BUT WOULD HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE MAY STICK
AROUND INTO MONDAY, BUT MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM A DIFFERENT CLOSED
LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MAY START TO WORK NORTHWARD AT SOME POINT
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SPORADIC SHOWERS WITH SOME STEADY LIGHT RAIN LIKELY AT MRB LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AND THAT COULD POSSIBLY REACH IAD FOR
A FEW HOURS AS WELL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY/VFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON
THE POSITION OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA
SATURDAY.
MARINE
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHED BELOW SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS EVENING,
AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST, WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCAS MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BAY WHERE THE NORTHERLY WINDS
COULD CHANNEL.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...KRR/JOHNSON/BJL/ADS
MARINE...KRR/JOHNSON/BJL/ADS
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