382
FXUS61 KLWX 071341
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
941 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN BRIEFLY TODAY, RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE RADAR ECHOS OBSERVED THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED GIVING WAY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. A SURFACE
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH A WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS LED TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN AREAS GENERALLY NORTH TO
I-66 AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST. IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY, DRY AIR CAN
BE SEEN PUSHING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS, WHICH WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA BY AROUND DAYBREAK.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS,
WESTERLY FLOW, AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 70S/NEAR 80 FOR MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY BEFORE
PASSING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND STRENGTH. VIRTUALLY
ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS ANOTHER CUTOFF UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE
EXACT POSITION OF WHERE THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS WILL
DICTATE HOW STRONG THE SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE FRONT, AND
CONSEQUENTLY HOW QUICKLY THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT CAN MOVE
INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
LATEST GUIDANCE EVEN KEEPS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY NOT ACTUALLY FULLY PUSH
THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY, SO KEEPING CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE FOR
FRIDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, ESPECIALLY AS YOU GET LATER
INTO THE DAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WE DRY OUT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH
CUTOFF LOWS, WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED IF THINGS LINGER A BIT LONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN ELONGATED, SLANTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
NEW ENGLAND SPLITS INTO TWO CUTOFF LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SETS
UP ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK, THOUGH LIKELY TO BE SHORTER LIVED THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER PA/NY ON SATURDAY SLOWLY
DRIFTS NORTHEAST, AND THEN SLINGSHOTS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES, BREAKING THE
OMEGA BLOCK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA, AND IS
REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LEADS TO A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND. WHILE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE DUE TO THE CUTOFF LOW,
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 70S.
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
AS THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS VERY SLOWLY MEANDERS
NORTH/EAST TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE TO START NEXT WEEK AND USHERS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
ADVECTS IN BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AS TEMPS RISE BACK TO
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80F, AND WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD
TEMPS ALOFT FROM THE CUTOFF LOW, THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE SETUP THERE COULD
CERTAINLY BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT TOO
EARLY TO KNOW FOR CERTAIN.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING, EVEN WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OUT THERE. VSBYS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ABOVE 6SM, EVEN IN THESE BRIEF SHOWERS.
SHOWER DISSIPATE BY AROUND DAYBREAK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND.
MARINE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THURSDAY. HOWEVER, MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
POTENT COLD FRONT, SET TO MOVE THROUGH BY FRIDAY.
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE N TO NNW ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE DAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME CHANNELING FLOW DOWN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY NORTH WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS, THOUGH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL/JMG
SHORT TERM...BJL/CJL
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CJL/KRR
MARINE...CJL/KRR
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