706
FXUS61 KLWX 071837
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
237 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY GIVES WAY TO A FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
CONTINUING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING HAVE GIVEN
WAY TO SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. I'VE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR
REGION, BUT WE ARE ON PACE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
EVENING, BUT AN UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MAY BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-66.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
BRIEFLY CLOSING OFF ALOFT OVER CENTRAL PA WHICH COULD LEAD TO
CONTINUE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING PERIODS. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF
THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ON
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED HEATING AND CAPE VALUES RANGING IN
THE 800 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF
THE REGION ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. HIRES
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE SEVERE THREAT FROM THE 00Z GUIDANCE,
BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BIGGER THREAT MAYBE
FLOODING IF THE RAIN OCCURS OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FROM
MONDAY AND TUESDAY RAIN EVENTS. THE MAIN THREAT WINDOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 20Z AND 9Z.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD START TO DECREASE FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NE AND THE FRONT
EXITS OUR REGION. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NE US WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING CHANCES FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
BUT SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERS VS. THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER SLOWLY CLEARING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. ALOFT, A
CUTOFF LOW WILL BE PIVOTING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE EXITING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S (60S MTNS) WITH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST.
COME MONDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECKS LIKELY THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MRB TERMINAL
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. PERIODS OF SUBVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO EASTERLY ON
SUNDAY.
MARINE
SUBSCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING A NEED FOR SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER OUR
MARINE AREAS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SUBSCA CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON
SUNDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/JMG
MARINE...AVS/JMG
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