733
FXUS61 KLWX 270133
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
933 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD IN TIME
BEFORE STALLING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK BOUNDARY BISECTING THE REGION HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE CAN'T RULE
OUT THERE COULD BE A FLOOD WARNING OR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING HERE AND THERE BECAUSE THERE IS A LOT OF INSTABILITY
AROUND AND MOISTURE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ANOTHER 45 MINUTES, WHILE A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY.
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS OUR
REGION AND COULD REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER, WHILE SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY, THE HEAT COULD CONTINUE. THIS IS SO, AT LEAST
UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START LIGHTING UP THE SKY. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL BEGIN AND COULD REMAIN IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, BEFORE
PROPAGATING EASTWARD TO THE METROS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AROUND ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING, ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAYBE WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTH AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, BUT NEARLY THE SAME OR 2 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY INSTABILITY IS EXHAUSTED, SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD FESTER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY.
WITH MID/UPPER HEIGHT CHANGES BEING SOMEWHAT NEUTRAL, IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS THIS BOUNDARY
MAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD EASILY LINGER RIGHT NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXPECTATION IS
FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO DRIFT NORTHWARD IN TIME ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL HELP USHER HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
FURTHER, CONVECTION WOULD BE DRIVEN MORE HEAVILY BY INSTABILITY
VERSUS ALONG ANY PARTICULAR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. BUT AS
MENTIONED, THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THIS ALL PLAYS
OUT. WILL SEE SATURDAY NIGHT'S LOWS BE A TAD MILDER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL MAINTAIN/SUPPORT A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE BERMUDA HIGH KEEPS A CONTINUED VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS SUPPORTING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN
INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER TROUGH IS FCST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
GREAT LKS AND MID-ATLANTIC TUE PUSHING A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
HAS SLOWED DOWN SOME SINCE YESTERDAY SUPPORTING A GREATER RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUE AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND
FOURTH OF JULY.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS ARE LOOKING LIKELY AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE OUTSIDE OF THESE CONVECTIVE
EPISODES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED TO MVFR TO IFR.
AS A FRONTAL ZONE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA, WINDS TURN
MORE EASTERLY IN NATURE ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS BOUNDARY DOES
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY. AND AS
MENTIONED, RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN A DECENT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT
TIMES OF CONVECTION, WE COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY AND/OR
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EXCEPT HIGHER GUSTS
IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY WHICH DAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE DEGREE OF CONTINUED HEAT AND
HUMIDITY SHOULD MAINTAIN A DAILY 30-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS USUAL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE
IN ANY SUCH STORM, WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LIKELY REQUIRING
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.
NO MARINE HAZARDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE OUT OVER THE WATERS, THEN SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE
WARRANTED. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT
HIGHER GUSTS IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THIS WILL KEEP WATER LEVELS SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FOR THE MORE SENSITIVE TIDAL SITES. AT THIS POINT, ONLY
ANNAPOLIS IS SLATED TO REACH ACTION STAGE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES.
CLIMATE
HERE ARE SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ON JUNE 26, 2025:
A '+' SIGN INDICATES MULTIPLE YEARS CURRENTLY HOLD THAT RECORD.
***THURSDAY, JUNE 26TH, 2025***
LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 101F (1952) 77F (1952)+
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 99F (2024) 72F (2023)+
BALTIMORE (BWI) 99F (2024)+ 80F (1952)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 104F (1998) 83F (1952)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 102F (1943) 75F (1949)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 99F (1998) 78F (1952)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 98F (1998)+ 81F (1952)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 98F (1954)+ 75F (1952)
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-008-011-
013-014-016-503>508.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ053>057-506-526-
527.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530.
SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...KLW/CJL
SHORT TERM...BRO/CJL
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/CJL
MARINE...LFR/KLW/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CJL
CLIMATE...CJL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page