423  
FXUS61 KLWX 290036  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
836 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD  
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT  
PUSHES THROUGH. LESS HUMIDITY AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE  
EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, WITH MAINLY DRY  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG CAN'T BE  
RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE  
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE WEST OF THE BLUE  
RIDGE, AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FURTHER EAST.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/  
 
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS  
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS A DECAYING WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD  
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT 12Z CAM/SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE PLACE THIS  
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-66/US-50 CORRIDOR OR JUST SOUTH OF  
IT INTO CENTRAL VA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE LITTLE  
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING BACK INTO THE  
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. HUMIDITY MAY DROP OFF A LITTLE BIT ESPECIALLY  
FOR THOSE THE FURTHER NORTH OF I-66/US-50 WHERE MODELED PWAT VALUES  
LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 1.1 TO 1.4 INCH RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. AREAS SOUTH OF I-66/US-50 WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH THE  
RICH MOISTURE LADEN AIR WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS WILL BE THE  
PRIMARY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT (SOUTH OF I-66/US-50) SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING  
WINDS FROM WET MICROBURSTS AND INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE  
PRIMARY THREATS. STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME  
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN FALLING BACK INTO THE  
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.  
 
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE MONDAY  
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WASHED OUT  
FRONT SITS NEARBY. AT THE SAME TIME, WILL MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF  
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST AND ENCROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT  
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. A WARM AND HUMID  
AIRMASS REMAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS YIELDING AMPLE  
INSTABILITY AND SUBTLE SHEAR FOR STORMS TO FEED OFF OF ESPECIALLY  
DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD. SPC ONCE AGAIN HIGHLIGHTS THE ENTIRE  
AREA FOR A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING WILL REMAIN  
POSSIBLE WITH CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG, 0-6 KM SHEAR  
VALUES LESS THAN 30 KTS, AND PWATS AROUND OR /ABOVE 2". HIGHS MONDAY  
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDEX  
VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL SIT IN  
THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
POTENT SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS  
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING AN ORGANIZED THREAT OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT  
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTIONS, AMPLE  
SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY.  
 
AFTER TROUGH AXIS PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT, HEIGHT RISES AND BUILDING  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLE WARM AND DRY/TRANQUIL  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A REINFORCING DRY COOL  
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRI BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR  
MASS FOR THE UPCOMING FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. AREAS OF PATCHY  
FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH VSBYS REMAINING MVFR OR GREATER AT  
MOST OF THE TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KCHO.  
 
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING AS A DECAYING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST WITH SUB-VFR REDUCTIONS AT  
TIMES FOR TERMINALS SOUTH OF KIAD AND KDCA. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DOWN AROUND KCHO-KSHD-KLYH-KRIC  
WITH LIMITED TO NO COVERAGE UP TOWARD KBWI-KMRB WHERE SLIGHTLY  
DRIER/STABLE AIR WILL PUSH IN. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AT  
LESS THAN 10 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS MONDAY WITH  
EXCEPTION TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING  
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING  
WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN  
MONDAY WITH SOME CHANNELING POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN  
AND MIDDLE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT THE  
CHANCE OF AN SMW OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH  
MONDAY AS A RESULT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCA  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE  
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE  
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  
 
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE T-STORMS ARE  
LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMWS.  
 
 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
DC...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...EST  
NEAR TERM...CPB/EST  
SHORT TERM...EST  
LONG TERM...LFR  
AVIATION...LFR/CPB/EST  
MARINE...LFR/KJP/CPB/EST  
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