124
FXUS61 KLWX 291402
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1002 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WARM, SUNNY, AND HUMID CONDITIONS HEADING INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST
AS A DECAYING COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE POPPED WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES THIS
MORNING WITH BUBBLING CU OVER THE CENTRAL BLUE RIDGE AND
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS REGION. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF BUBBLING
CU BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND ALLEGHENIES BETWEEN NOON-3PM. AREAS
FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE BALTIMORE/DC METROS WILL LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BAY/RIVER
BREEZE WITH CONSOLIDATION OF COLLIDING OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS TO
THE WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS (AFTER 2-4PM).
FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE PA/MD LINE CONVECTION MAY BE SUBDUED
GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOW LEVELS (PWATS LESS
THAN 1.8"). ELSEWHERE, THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 1.8-2.3" AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL GET BACK TOWARD 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCAL POINT FOR IGNITION OUTSIDE OF THE DECAYING FRONT. MUCAPE
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN SIT BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG WITH DCAPE
VALUES LESS THAN 900 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES UNDER 25 KTS.
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEAK IN THE MID
LEVELS OUT OF THE WEST AT 10-15 KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN STORM
MOTIONS THAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC, AND LARGELY DRIVEN BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TODAY. WITH THE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC STORM
MOTIONS, IT'S DIFFICULT TO TIME THE STORMS IN ANY ONE GIVEN
LOCATION, WITH A GENERAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS (2-8PM).
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE OVER THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY NORTH AND EAST TOWARD US-15 AND THE
BALTIMORE/DC METRO AREAS. SPC & WPC CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VA AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MD DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS FROM WET MICROBURSTS AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN FALLING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
TRY TO FORM PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A VERY SIMILAR WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY (CLOSER
TO 3000 THAN 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE), AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-
LEVEL FLOW (AROUND 15-20 KNOTS), WITH CONTINUED DEEP NEAR-SATURATION
AND MODEST DCAPE VALUES (500-800 J/KG). AS A RESULT, STORMS MAY
SHOW SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZATION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE THEY'LL BE CLOSER TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH
SPC AND WPC ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE BULK OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED IN
MARGINAL RISKS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FURTHER EAST ON
TUESDAY AS A SEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH FLOW ALOFT INCREASING
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES, STORMS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
BETTER ORGANIZED, AND COULD POTENTIALLY POSE A GREATER THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS COMPARED TO TODAY AND TOMORROW. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS WELL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
AT THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THEREFORE, THE PROBABILITY FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LOW
ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOWER HUMIDITY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOST LIKELY DEPART WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD, THIS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY FOR
CONVECTION TO BE LOW WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY. A WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONGER SUBSIDENCE,
ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY IN
THE 90S. FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR A
SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED SINCE IT IS SEVERAL DAYS
OUT.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (BETWEEN 16-00Z/12-8PM). IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY WELL- DEFINED SURFACE FEATURES, STORM MOVEMENT
WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOWS, AND AS A RESULT TIMING THE
STORM AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT. HAVE
MAINTAINED LONGER PROB30 GROUPS WITH -TSRA AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES FURTHER. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT, WITH QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE
GREATEST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY, BEFORE
TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW, AND THEN SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NEARBY.
MARINE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW, AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY REACH LOW-END SCA LEVELS MONDAY INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY. SMWS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SEVERAL SITES WILL REACH ACTION STAGE WITH THE TIDAL CYCLE THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER, ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP, WITH NO
TIDAL FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KJP
MARINE...BJL/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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