591
FXUS61 KLWX 050759
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY,
BEFORE POTENTIALLY STALLING NEAR THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING WHILE UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS LOCATED EAST OF COASTAL
GEORGIA. A MIXTURE OF RADIATIONAL FOG AND FIREWORK SMOKE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN A FEW OF THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS IN
THE HIGHLANDS, DENSE FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.
WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THROUGH TONIGHT, DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL. A FEW MODELS (E.G., NAM NEST) PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT AS NOTABLE AS
FRIDAY, SO HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE A MIXTURE OF
CUMULUS AND CIRRUS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A RETURN
TO SE/S FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT INCREASES IN TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY, BUT IT WILL REMAIN A SEASONABLE EARLY JULY DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS WELL AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH MONDAY BUT ALSO MAY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, THE SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALLOW WHAT
BECOMES OF TD 3 TO START LIFTING NORTHWARD. UNCERTAINTY IS STILL
FAIRLY HIGH IN HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES, SO REFER TO NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
COULD WORK NORTHWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL TREND UPWARD MONDAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND WHETHER FORCING
FROM THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA. AT THIS JUNCTURE, IMPACTS
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL
ASPECT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD SLIGHTLY, BUT THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE MORE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL
BE THE RETURN OF MUGGIER DEW POINTS, ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH A WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS YIELDING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION TO THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA, ANOTHER
SYSTEM OF NOTE IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 LOCATED OFF THE
GEORGIA/FLORIDA COAST. THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY
SURROUNDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH IT HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA SHOULD THE TRACK TAKE IT
NORTHWARD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IT GETS CLOSER.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE THE 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 60S AND 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL
SLIGHTLY ON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S
FOR MOST WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOCATIONS REACHING THE 90S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL STAY IN THE 70S BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MIXTURE OF RADIATION FOG AND PARTICULATES FROM LAST EVENING'S
FIREWORKS IS CAUSING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AT THIS TIME, DENSE FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY (THOUGH IFR
CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING MRB), WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING
AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT S TO SE WINDS PREVAIL WITH FEW/SCATTERED
CUMULUS DEVELOPING.
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT UNCERTAIN IF IT
AFFECTS ANY OF THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF GREATER FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUD COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY, BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS, AND LOW CLOUDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.
MARINE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE, THOUGH LOCAL DIURNAL SHIFTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. A STRONGER PUSH OF
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY RESULT IN MARGINAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE BAY. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE
MAY APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE,
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. REFER TO NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH SMWS ARE POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT INCREASES IN WATER LEVEL
ANOMALIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY FOR MOST AREAS, ANNAPOLIS MAY NEAR MINOR FLOOD
THRESHOLDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDES.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...ADS/AVS
MARINE...ADS/AVS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS
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