206
FXUS61 KLWX 060801
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE
CHANTAL MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND PERHAPS
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SITUATED OVERHEAD. TROPICAL STORM
CHANTAL IS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
IS DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL RURAL AREAS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS. THIS FOG SHOULDN'T BECOME TOO EXTENSIVE AND
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY AND DRY, ALTHOUGH SOUTH
WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
QUICKLY TOWARD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST SHOWS CHANTAL MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PEE DEE
RIVER BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FREDERICKSBURG AND CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH, IT WILL EVENTUALLY OUTRUN THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE SUBSIDENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY, THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE RATHER BENIGN IN
NATURE, WITH SEVERE WEATHER/FLOODING UNLIKELY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WHILE CHANTAL WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY, A CONCENTRATED AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MAY FAIL TO REACH
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNDOWN, BUT RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS
TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. MODELED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE RATHER MODEST
THROUGH THE NIGHT, LIKELY OWING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THE
MAIN LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA, WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A
SECONDARY STRIPE DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY ALONG
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTHWARD MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE REMNANTS WILL LIKELY
TRACK. THE PARAMETER SPACE FOR HIGH EFFICIENT RAIN RATES WILL BE
MAXIMIZED, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL OVER 2 INCHES,
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 4.5 KM, TALL SKINNY INSTABILITY, AND
WEAK STEERING FLOW. INTERESTINGLY, MODELED QPF OUTPUT ISN'T
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ON AVERAGE, THOUGH CAMS DO INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY ISOLATED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES, MAINLY NEAR AND
EAST OF I-95. WPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK FOR THIS AREA. THE DAY MAY START WITH LOW CLOUDS, WITH
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING. THEREFORE, HIGHS MAY TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN CHANTAL'S REMNANTS AND THE COLD FRONT, WITH
MORE SUN AND LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SOME 90S ARE POSSIBLE HERE. A MINIMUM OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES
EAST AND UPSTREAM FRONTAL CONVECTION DISSIPATES. MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE
SHOULD BE SOME SUN, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
INSTABILITY IN THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG
TO ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS, BUT WEAK SHEAR AND MOIST
PROFILES (LOWER DCAPE) WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS. THE GREATER
CONCERN MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING GIVEN THE VERY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. THERE ARE MARGINAL
RISKS FOR BOTH SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE AS SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AMIDST A
STALLED/SLOW-MOGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PAIRED WITH ALL OF THESE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. STILL THINKING THAT THURSDAY IS
GOING TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS LOOKS
TO BE THE STRONGEST SYSTEM, SO WOULD LOOK TO THIS DAY AS A DAY TO
WATCH. OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN OUTLYING AREAS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MRB AND CHO SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR
RANGE OR HIGHER. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY
WITH S TO SE WINDS 5-10KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY APPROACH CHO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ADVANCE NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL APPROACH, BUT COVERAGE IS TOO
LOW TO CURRENTLY INCLUDE IN THE TAF. THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE
FROM LOWERING CEILINGS, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST
TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH CHO COULD REACH IFR. SOME FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY, BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON, AS THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS CROSS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS COULD FEATURE SOME FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HOWEVER, EACH DAY WILL COME WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE MORNING REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
GIVEN WEAK GRADIENTS IN PLACE. AS WHAT REMAINS OF TROPICAL
STORM CHANTAL MOVES ONSHORE INTO THE CAROLINAS, THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL UPTICK IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS FLOW WILL CHANNEL ALONG THE BAY, WHERE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. WINDS GRADUALLY DECLINE
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS ELEVATED WINDS REMAINING
ON THE MIDDLE BAY INTO MONDAY.
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BY MONDAY WHICH
MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH SMWS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE RESULTING IN SLIGHT INCREASES IN
WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES. WHILE FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR MOST
AREAS, ANNAPOLIS MAY NEAR MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDES, PARTICULARLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ532-533-537-541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...ADS/CJL
MARINE...ADS/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS
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