396
FXUS61 KLWX 100134
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
934 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MARYLAND AND A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT OR TWO REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY. OTHERWISE, LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL START THE DAY, BUT WILL QUICKLY
BE REPLACED BY SOME BUILDING CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE REGION AND BE FUELED BY MORE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE ONLY PARTIALLY AS ACTIVE AS TODAY WAS IN THE REGION.
NOT AS MANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS OR FLOOD WARNINGS.
THERE WILL BE SOME, BUT SHOULDN'T BE AS MANY AND SHOULDN'T BE AS
WIDESPREAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM
EITHER.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE A
QUIETER DAY FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN SOME PLACES,
WHILE OTHER PLACES WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE. THERE COULD BE MORE
SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES, WHILE
THE NUMBER OF POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REDUCED AS
WELL WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO WHAT IS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION. SENSIBLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ALONG WITH
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS IS A RESULT OF ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND NO STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SET TO CROSS THE REGION.
OVERALL, A STAGNANT AIRMASS THAT WILL BE HARD TO FLIP UNTIL AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPTICALLY, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA
THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONCE AGAIN. IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING ALL THE TIME WITH AMPLE DRY TIME FOR PLANS IN BETWEEN.
HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WAVERING FRONT AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT PIVOTS
ACROSS. CURRENT CSU LEARNING MACHINE GUIDANCE, CIPS PATTERN
RECOGNITIONS, AND LONG RANGE NSSL PROBS ARE LEANING TOWARD THE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIMEFRAME AS THE NEXT POTENTIAL PERIOD FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. EITHER WAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING EACH AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE LARGELY IN PART TO THE STAGNANT
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.
BEYOND MONDAY, UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN REGARDS TO A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 12Z SYNOPTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW A COLD FRONT
EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY SOME TIME TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR CROSS UNTIL
THEN WITH A SECONDARY FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS TENDS
TO REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN HOLDING THE CURRENT PATTERN WHILE ECWMF
AND CANADIAN TURN THE PATTERN OVER MID NEXT WEEK.TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITHIN THE BACK
HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW CLOUDS FORM OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED BEFORE
MIXING/SCATTERING OUT LATE THURSDAY MORNING. LESS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THAN TODAY. SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY TOO, BUT SHOULD
BE REDUCED OR VERY ISOLATED.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SUB-
VFR REDUCTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS A RESULT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING LIGHT
OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST SUNDAY.
MARINE
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL FALL
OFF OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEARBY.
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL SMWS WILL BE NEEDED TO
ENCOMPASS THIS THREAT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH OUTFLOWS LIKELY DISRUPTING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOUTHERLY CHANNELING OUTSIDE OF THE OPEN
WATERS.
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
DESPITE A STALLED FRONT NEARBY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON
SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF SMWS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/KLW
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/EST
MARINE...LFR/KLW/EST
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