640
FXUS61 KLWX 101933
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
333 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY, THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
STALLING OFF TO THE SOUTH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS, THE LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS MUCH LESS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. A STUBBORN AREA OF
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD IN TIME, BUT STILL
REMAINS A FIXTURE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-64. RADAR RETURNS
REMAIN QUITE WEAK UNDER THIS OVERCAST DECK WHICH ARE LIKELY
YIELDING UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. OFF TO
THE WEST, AN AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. HOWEVER, RADAR TRENDS ARE NOT TERRIBLY
PROMISING AS MOST ECHOES HAVE COLLAPSED FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
GENESIS. EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE TOWERS TO UTILIZE THE 1,500 TO
2,000 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON
TO EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A
WEST-EAST AXIS OF CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
BACK ACROSS NORTHERN DELAWARE. CURRENT INSTABILITY VALUES ARE QUITE
HIGH OVER NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, BUT CLOUD COVER REMAINS ABUNDANT.
OFF TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR, THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(I.E., FLASH FLOODING). THE CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST NO IMMINENT THREATS, BUT THERE IS SOME LOOSE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODEL SIGNAL OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LATER TODAY. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GIVEN THE ROBUST CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA, TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE CONFINED TO THE
LOW 80S, WITH A FEW SPOTTY MID 80S. DESPITE THIS COOL DOWN, THE
LOCAL REGION REMAINS SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN NEW YORK. THIS WARM/HUMID
AIR MASS CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOW-LEVEL
TROPOSPHERE, PATCHY FOG MAY BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT. AREAS MORE VULNERABLE TO DENSE FOG COULD SEE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ITS WEAK GRADIENTS REMAIN A FIXTURE IN
THE FORECAST AHEAD. BEHIND A RATHER WEAK TROUGH, MID/UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE IN TIME ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS
RESULTS IN AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY HIGHS PUSHING
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. FOR MID-JULY CLIMATOLOGY, THOSE
ARE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. WITH PERSISTENT DEW
POINTS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, AMPLE
INSTABILITY WILL TRIGGER DIURNALLY-FORCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT
SHOW TOO GREAT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THIS IS LIKELY OWING TO
A LACK OF MEANINGFUL FORCING AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. IN THIS
CASE, CONVECTION MAY BE MORE TIED TO THE TERRAIN AND MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES (I.E., BAY/RIVER BREEZES). THE CURRENT STORM
PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HEADING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT.
AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES DO GO UP ON SATURDAY WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING PROBABILITIES AROUND 40 TO 60 PERCENT. WHILE
DIURNAL HEATING AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY WORK THEIR
MAGIC IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHERE
FORCING ALOFT AND PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ACT ON RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON TAP.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUMMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FOREESEABLE PICTURE WITH NO BIG
FRONTS TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS FCST TO TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ENHANCE THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING A THREAT OF
MORE WIDESPREAD T-STORMS AND THE RISK OF SCATTERED SEVERE T-STORMS
MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO THE NW, LIKELY CAUSING A SHARP DECREASE IN
T-STORM COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS, HAVE PULLED THE
PROB30 GROUPS OUT OF THE D.C. TERMINALS. HOWEVER, DESPITE A
LACKLUSTER APPEARANCE ON RADAR, WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE
TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 20-23Z AT KCHO. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY
HAS BEEN THE GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN MVFR STRATUS
DECK. THIS HAS LARGELY CURBED ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES THUS FAR.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. FOR TONIGHT, CALM WINDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL FAVOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE SHOWN FOR MOST TERMINALS, BUT WITH IFR CONDITIONS
AT KCHO AND KMRB. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BURN OFF AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR,
CONVECTIVE CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD CERTAINLY LEAD
TO SOME RESTRICTIONS. PROBABILITIES ARE A BIT HIGHER ON SATURDAY
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. GRADIENTS REMAIN RATHER WEAK,
BUT WINDS SHOULD MAINLY HAVE A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THEM.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD T-STORMS, SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
WHILE SYNOPTIC WINDS REMAIN WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN A LACK
OF MEANINGFUL GRADIENTS, HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WOULD COME
FROM ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED AND ARE MORE FOCUSED TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HOWEVER, DURING THE FOLLOWING COUPLE OF
DAYS, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GO UP, PARTICULARLY BY SATURDAY.
THUS, THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE STRONGER CELLS.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWF 5-DAY FCST
PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WATER LEVELS SLOWLY BECOME
MORE ELEVATED IN TIME GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS
CARRIES SOME OF THE MORE SENSITIVE LOCATIONS INTO ACTION STAGE
(I.E., ANNAPOLIS AND BALTIMORE), PARTICULARLY DURING THE HIGHER
OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THE STEVENS ENSEMBLE
SYSTEM SUPPORTS THIS GRADUAL UPTICK IN ANOMALIES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/BRO
MARINE...LFR/BRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BRO/LFR
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