191
FXUS61 KLWX 110036
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
836 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY, THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
STALLING OFF TO THE SOUTH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IN TERMS OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING, AND
THE FEW SHOWERS THAT HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP DIDN'T GET VERY
INTENSE. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VA INTO SOUTHERN MD, THAT CHANCE IS QUICKLY
DROPPING.
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION CURRENTLY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOW-LEVEL
TROPOSPHERE, PATCHY FOG MAY BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT. AREAS MORE VULNERABLE TO DENSE FOG COULD SEE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ITS WEAK GRADIENTS REMAIN A FIXTURE IN
THE FORECAST AHEAD. BEHIND A RATHER WEAK TROUGH, MID/UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE IN TIME ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS
RESULTS IN AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY HIGHS PUSHING
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. FOR MID-JULY CLIMATOLOGY, THOSE
ARE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. WITH PERSISTENT DEW
POINTS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, AMPLE
INSTABILITY WILL TRIGGER DIURNALLY-FORCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT
SHOW TOO GREAT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THIS IS LIKELY OWING TO
A LACK OF MEANINGFUL FORCING AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. IN THIS
CASE, CONVECTION MAY BE MORE TIED TO THE TERRAIN AND MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES (I.E., BAY/RIVER BREEZES). THE CURRENT STORM
PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HEADING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT.
AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES DO GO UP ON SATURDAY WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING PROBABILITIES AROUND 40 TO 60 PERCENT. WHILE
DIURNAL HEATING AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY WORK THEIR
MAGIC IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHERE
FORCING ALOFT AND PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ACT ON RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON TAP.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUMMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE PICTURE WITH
NO BIG FRONTS TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A SHARP MID-
LEVEL TROUGH IS FCST TO TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY
BRING A THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD T-STORMS AND THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SEVERE T-STORMS MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO THE NW,
LIKELY CAUSING A SHARP DECREASE IN T-STORM COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOR TONIGHT, CALM WINDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SHOWN FOR
MOST TERMINALS, BUT WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KCHO AND KMRB. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BURN OFF AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY.
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR,
CONVECTIVE CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD CERTAINLY LEAD
TO SOME RESTRICTIONS. PROBABILITIES ARE A BIT HIGHER ON SATURDAY
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. GRADIENTS REMAIN RATHER WEAK,
BUT WINDS SHOULD MAINLY HAVE A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THEM.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD T-STORMS, SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GO UP,
PARTICULARLY BY SATURDAY. THUS, THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE STRONGER CELLS.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWF 5-DAY FCST
PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WATER LEVELS SLOWLY BECOME
MORE ELEVATED IN TIME GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS
CARRIES SOME OF THE MORE SENSITIVE LOCATIONS INTO ACTION STAGE
(I.E., ANNAPOLIS AND BALTIMORE), PARTICULARLY DURING THE HIGHER
OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THE STEVENS ENSEMBLE
SYSTEM SUPPORTS THIS GRADUAL UPTICK IN ANOMALIES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO/CJL
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/CJL
MARINE...LFR/BRO/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BRO/LFR
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