895
FXUS61 KLWX 160747
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
347 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA AT
THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE STALLING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMBINES WITH A WARM AND HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AS RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES PROGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS
THE AREA. PWATS OF 2+ INCHES WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES IN WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
DISAGREEING ON WHERE QPF MAXIMUMS WILL BE. DESPITE A STRONGER
SIGNAL EARLIER TODAY ON HEAVY PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY KEEPING
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS, WHEREVER HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HAPPENS, THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH WPC HAVING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
WITHIN CONVECTION, THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SPC
HAVING THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET
DOWNBURSTS. CONVECTION CHANCES DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING, WITH RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR MOST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL DIP
INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THURSDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND
40%. THOSE ALONG THE ALLEGHENY RIDGE WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND 50% IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS,
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS, DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY WILL
YIELD HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. ISOLATED
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 MAY BRIEFLY REACH HEAT INDICES
OF 105, WITH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION AND COVERAGE BEING TO LOW TO
ISSUE HEAT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TO 50 TO 60% ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE I-95 CORRIDOR STAYING
AROUND 30-50%. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S TO 90S ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ONTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MOST AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE
EITHER DRY OR THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. TO THE
WEST AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR EXTRA HUMIDITY AND
MOISTURE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM MIDDAY SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
HIGHS SUNDAY COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY, A WARM FRONT PUSHING
NORTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LESS ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, BUT NOT ZERO. THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE NEARBY, A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL
DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT CHO AND MRB, THIS MORNING WITH
GUIDANCE HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE
DURING PRECIPITATION. AFTER AN INITIAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, STRATIFORM RAIN
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY FOR THE MOST PART. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO CHO AND MRB
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT FOR
ANY GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BUT HIGHER IN
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, BLOWING OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING LEADING TO SCA
CRITERIA WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS, THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS GUST 15 TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING, WITH SMWS
POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY
BEFORE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.
NO MARINE HAZARDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS MAY BE WARRANTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. WINDS SATURDAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANNAPOLIS IS FORECAST TO REACH ACTION
STAGE DURING HIGH TIDE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER,
OUTSIDE OF FRESHWATER INFLUENCES FROM HEAVY RAINFALL, THE THREAT
FOR TIDAL FLOODING APPEARS LOW.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...AVS/KLW
MARINE...AVS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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