654
FXUS61 KLWX 171403
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1003 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID-MORNING UPDATE: THE ONLY CHANGE MADE THIS MORNING WAS TO
EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY SLIGHTLY TO INCLUDE THE NW SUBURBS OF
DC/BALTIMORE OVER TOWARD THE I-81 CORRIDOR FROM WINCHESTER TO
HAGERSTOWN. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER LOCATIONS ARE IN THE HEAT
ADVISORY OR NOT, IT WILL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY TODAY. REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, INCOMING 12Z CAMS HAVE
CONTINUED TO NOTE A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. IF ANY STORMS WERE TO FORM, THE ENVIRONMENT DOES LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, ELEVATED DCAPE, AND STRONGER FLOW IN PLACE AT LOW-
LEVELS THAN IS TYPICAL FOR MID-JULY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE
MID 70S. THIS COMBINATION WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 80S
TO 90S. FOR THIS REASON, A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11AM
TO 8PM TODAY PORTIONS OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN MD.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE, ALTHOUGH A THUNDERSTORM FARTHER EAST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
LESS AS DRY AIR ALOFT AND WESTERLY WINDS INHIBIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THAT BEING SAID ELEVATED DCAPE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT OF STRONGER CONVECTION PRODUCING DOWNBURSTS.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND 70S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY AS A STALLED
FRONT REMAINS NEARBY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO BEING ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 75%
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH DAYS, A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WILL LEAD TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST BOTH DAYS WITH
HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND 70S
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY IN
THE REGION AGAIN WILL FUEL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS SUNDAY COULD REACH THE LOWER
90S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND
NORTHERN NC MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND NORTH OF OUR CWA AS WELL. MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD STAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD BE DRY OR AT LEAST HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO NUDGE FARTHER SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THUS, PERHAPS WE WILL HAVE MINIMAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE OR
EVEN A FULL DRY DAY IF CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT. HIGHS UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH
WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT, BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY, BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TODAY,
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE UNDER HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED DURING CONVECTION.
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ANY TERMINAL, WHILE THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR CHO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SOUTHWEST BECOMING
NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS UNTIL 6PM
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF SCA CONDITIONS, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMWS MAY BE
NEEDED, MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
WINDS DECREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SMWS REMAINING POSSIBLE
DURING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NO MARINE HAZARDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE AN
OCCASIONAL SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR PARTS OF THE POTOMAC RIVER OR
CHESAPEAKE BAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANY CONVECTION.
WINDS SOUTHWEST BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANNAPOLIS IS FORECAST TO NEAR ACTION STAGE
DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLE TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE THREAT
FOR TIDAL FLOODING APPEARS LOW.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>006-008-
011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-030-031-
053>055-057-501-502-505-506-526-527.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
535-536-538-539-542.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ531>534-537-540-541-543.
SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS/KJP
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...AVS/KLW
MARINE...AVS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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