182
FXUS61 KLWX 211300
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
900 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG AREA OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A RETURN TO MORE SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AS OF
MID MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES.
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE,
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGHS REACH THE LOW
TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY IN PLACE. A
REINFORCING FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SWEEPS OUT ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS IN CENTRAL VA. TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE
FIRST "COOL" SUMMER NIGHT IN A WHILE AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 60S,
WITH UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS PREVAIL. HIGHS IN THE 80S EACH DAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS SETTLE IN THE 60S. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ON TUESDAY
SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. MID-
LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT WE WON'T SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE INCREASES
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STUCK OVERHEAD THURSDAY WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVERHEAD WHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, THIS
LOOKS TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WE WILL SEE HOW THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE WORKS OUT, BUT
STORMS FRIDAY MAY REALLY STRUGGLE TO DO MUCH WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
STILL IN PLAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE MUCH HOTTER, WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE MID 90S. THIS WILL BE PAIRED WITH DEW POINT WELL INTO THE 70S.
WOULD BE CONCERNED FOR POTENTIAL HEAT HEADLINES ON FRIDAY FOR SURE,
SO THAT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.
BY THE WEEKEND, A MORE ACTIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP,
AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PUT
OUR REGION RIGHT IN LINE FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TO ROUND THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH INTO OUR REGION, AMIDST A CONTINUED HOT/HUMID AIR
MASS. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY POSE A THREAT FOR HEAT HEADLINES,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, BOTH DAYS WILL ALSO BRING THE
THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. TOO
EARLY FOR EXACT DETAILS AT THIS TIME, BUT THINK THIS COULD BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING, THOUGH PART OF IT
SLOWS AROUND CENTRAL VA. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TO CHO THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, LEADING TO CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASE, THUS INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL MAINLY BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE HOWEVER,
SO BEST CHANCE AT MRB, WITH SMALLER CHANCES THAT RESIDUAL
SHOWERS/STORMS MAKE IT TO CHO/IAD LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES
REMAIN AOB 30 PERCENT (HIGHEST WEST, CLOSER TO 15-20 PERCENT
EAST).
MARINE
WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA LEVELS, AND WILL REMAIN THERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, AND THESE
WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED AS NEW MODEL GUIDANCE COMES IN.
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE REGION.
BY THURSDAY, WINDS PICK UP A FEW KNOTS AND TURN SOUTHERLY. SUB-SCA
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, BUT COULD SEE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS THAT COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA. WINDS
THEN TURN A BIT MORE SSW ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING, SO SUB-SCA
WINDS SHOULD PERSIST DURING THIS PERIOD. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME ROGUE NEAR-SCA GUSTS, BUT IT DOESN'T APPEAR QUITE AS LIKELY
FRIDAY EVENING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS ARE DROPPING TODAY AS NORTH WINDS STRENGTHEN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS CROSSING THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE AGAIN ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS. SNAPBACK TIDE
COULD PUSH WATER LEVELS INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT SOME SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS (MAINLY ANNAPOLIS) BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF/KRR
NEAR TERM...DHOF/KRR
SHORT TERM...DHOF/KRR
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL/KRR
MARINE...DHOF/CJL/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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