096
FXUS61 KLWX 211840
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
240 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A RETURN TO MORE SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-64 WHERE A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT LIES. OVERALL CAPE/SHEAR/PWS ARE MARGINAL AND THUS ANY
SEVERE/HYDRO THREAT SEEMS VERY LOW.
DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS FROM
GETTING TOO MUCH FOG TONIGHT, BUT THE TYPICAL VALLEYS IN CENTRAL
VA AND NEAR THE APPALACHIANS MAY SEE PATCHES OF FOG BY DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID WEEK. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS ON TUESDAY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WE WON'T SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE INCREASES UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING RESULTING IN HIGH HEAT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AND DRIVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. EXPECT HEAT
INDICES FRI AND SAT TO BE AT OR NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. BY
SATURDAY, THE RIDGE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO INCREASE MARKEDLY, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING SOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT CHO THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH THE 18Z
TAFS. SOME FOG MAY FORM DUE TO LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAINLY NEAR CHO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK. WINDS WILL BE N THROUGH TONIGHT, E TUE AND SE WED.
NO SIG WEATHER IS EXPECTED THU AND FRI, OTHER THAN THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY.
MARINE
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT,
BECOMING EAST TUESDAY, THEN SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
(PARTICULARLY IN DURATION) HAS PRECLUDED THE ISSUANCE OF ANY
HEADLINE AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT, PARTICULARLY
AT NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
AGAIN ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS. SNAPBACK TIDE COULD PUSH
WATER LEVELS INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT SOME SENSITIVE LOCATIONS
(MAINLY ANNAPOLIS) BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF/KRR
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF/KRR
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL
MARINE...DHOF/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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