952
FXUS61 KLWX 220606
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
206 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR IS ADVECTING IN, LIKELY DROPPING DEW POINTS TO
THE 50S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
60S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST
THEN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES STEADILY INCREASE EACH DAY, REACHING THE
UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AND LOW 90S ON THURSDAY. HUMIDITY SLOWLY STARTS
TO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH STILL WELL BELOW WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S,
THOUGH TURNING NOTICEABLY MUGGIER THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS SETTLE IN
THE 70S ON A WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AFTER A REPRIEVE FROM THE PERSISTENT HEAT AND HUMIDITY, THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST CONSISTS OF SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA. WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS EASTWARD
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FLATTENS SOME, THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BE
PLENTY WARM TO SUPPORT A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WHILE
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, FRIDAY'S HIGHS LIKELY
RETURN TO THE MID/UPPER 90S, COUPLED WITH AMPLE HUMIDITY. DEPENDING
ON WHETHER THE HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE MORNING CAN HOLD ON INTO THE
CORE HEATING HOURS, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAT
ADVISORIES OVER THE AREA. ANY RISK FOR DIURNALLY-FORCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF I-81.
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE CAPPED AT AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT AS THE MAIN
AXIS OF FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES, CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE AS A SLEW OF
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES TRACK IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF SEVERE
THREAT, THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO WORK WITH TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. SUCH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT, SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE UPTICK IN CLOUD COVER FROM APPROACHING
THUNDERSTORMS, TEMPERATURES DROP OFF A BIT, BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTION SHOULD TRACK
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING NEARBY INTO MONDAY.
TYPICALLY MID-SUMMER BOUNDARIES STRUGGLE TO COMPLETELY CLEAR THE
AREA. THUS, EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH SLIDES OFFSHORE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES
LIKELY REMAINING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS. SATURDAY OFFERS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS, SOME AFTERNOON
AND EVENING RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME SEVERE THREAT ALSO LOOMS
IN THIS HOT AND HUMID PATTERN. INITIAL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BEFORE SHIFTING TO WESTERLY BY SATURDAY.
MARINE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS CAUSES NORTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME
EAST, THEN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF THIS TIME, THOUGH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BRING WINDS TO NEAR SCA
LEVELS OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
WIND FIELDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.
INITIAL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH BEFORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY ON SATURDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR ANY MORE ROBUST
STORMS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN
ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS. SNAPBACK TIDE COULD PUSH WATER
LEVELS INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT SOME SENSITIVE LOCATIONS (MAINLY
ANNAPOLIS) BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...KRR/BRO
MARINE...KRR/BRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR
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