534
FXUS61 KLWX 221900
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A RETURN TO HOT AND
HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SHALLOW CUMULUS WERE WIDELY SCATTERED OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AS OF MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN AMPLE DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, IT IS UNLIKELY ANY OF THESE CLOUDS GAIN ENOUGH
DEPTH FOR RAIN. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT A DRY FORECAST, DESPITE A
FEW HI-RES MODELS SHOWING A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO IN THE VICINITY
OF HIGHLAND COUNTY VA THIS EVENING. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE DRY
FORECAST IS NEAR THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE MID BAY WHERE SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN A SHIFTING SURFACE RIDGE AND THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE COULD RESULT IN A SHOWER OR TWO.
OTHERWISE, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NY TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING IN SOME
LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF I-95. A FEW PIECES OF HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAVE SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER NE MD, THOUGH
GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE IT'S UNLIKELY MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES
ARE OBSERVED.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES STEADILY INCREASE EACH DAY,
REACHING THE UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AND LOW 90S ON THURSDAY.
HUMIDITY SLOWLY STARTS TO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH
STILL WELL BELOW WHAT WE EXPERIENCED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, THOUGH IT WILL TURN
NOTICEABLY MUGGIER THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO
THE 70S ON A WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BREAKING DOWN FRI ALLOWING FOR
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN THE RIDGE FURTHER ON SATURDAY AND BRING A MARKED
INCREASE OF CONVECTION SAT INTO SUN. THE MOST ACTIVE DAY LOOKS
TO BE SUNDAY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAKES IT INTO NORTHEAST
MARYLAND. GIVEN THE EXTREME HEAT AND INSTABILITY, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE RISK OF DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOT AND HUMID FRI AND SAT WITH HEAT INDICES AT OR
ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH SLIDES OFFSHORE. A
PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR
CHO/MRB LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING. LIGHT E WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME SE WEDNESDAY, THEN S THURSDAY.
ISOLATED T-STORMS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI, THEN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
MARINE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST FOR MOST OF THIS TIME, THOUGH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BRING WINDS TO NEAR
SCA LEVELS OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THERE ARE HINTS OF BRIEF
BAY/RIVER BREEZE ENHANCEMENTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS EACH OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THESE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO BE HANDLED WITH MWSS, IF NECESSARY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT, EXPECT WATER LEVEL RISES ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT
ANNAPOLIS. AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND, EXPECT
THE RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF/KRR
NEAR TERM...DHOF/KRR
SHORT TERM...DHOF/KRR
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF/KRR
MARINE...LFR/DHOF/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR
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