846
FXUS61 KLWX 140146 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
946 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTH FRIDAY. THE HEAT RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO PASS THROUGH. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR
HIGH CLOUDS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
PREVIOUS AFD...
A RESIDUAL SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF
FOG LATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S DUE TO THE
EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
POP 90 DEGREES DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION CAN OCCUR.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S ALLOWING THE MUGGY FEEL TO CONTINUE
AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER CANADA PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST. THOSE
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 70S. CONDITIONS DRY
OUT OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
ON FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH
HIGHS STAYING IN THE 80S FOR MOST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CANADA, EXTENDING TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOW
70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S
SHOULD STRENGTHEN/BUILD WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS HOVERING BETWEEN 590-594
DECAMETERS PER 12Z GEFS/EPS OUTPUT. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. HUMIDITY WILL LOWER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS/T-STORMS TIED TO THE INITIATION THE
BAY/RIVER BREEZE AS WELL AS TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S FURTHER EAST
TOWARD THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS.
MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A ENCROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 95-100 DEGREES. A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR T-STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE
AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED NORTHERN
STREAM. RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S WITH
A SECONDARY RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
THE TWO IS A DECENT FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE U.S. WITHIN THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE A SERIES OF FRONTS THAT
WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY INTO
MIDWEEK DELIVERING A COOLDOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE MULTIPLE FRONTS CROSSING THE AREA EXPECT AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ANY
STORMS THAT WE DO SEE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY
WINDS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUCKLES AND STRONGER OF THE TWO FRONTS PASSES THROUGH.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. ON FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO THE
SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING FOR KCHO. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY, BLOWING AROUND 5 KNOTS.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH NIGHTS.
CONVECTION OVERALL WILL BE FAIRLY SPOTTY THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY TEMPORARY SUB-VFR REDUCTIONS FROM SPOTTY
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS WILL BE AT
TERMINALS NEAR THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AT LESS THAN 15 KTS. WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NO MARINE
HAZARDS EXPECTED. SMWS MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ON
FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH.
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT
LESS THAN 15 KTS. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT LESS THAN 15 KTS. SOME SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING REMAINS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS,
BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK GIVEN THE RECENT FULL MOON AND LIGHT WINDS. WHILE MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, SOME CYCLES COULD GO INTO ACTION
STAGE DURING THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES (ESPECIALLY AT
ANNAPOLIS AND PERHAPS DAHLGREN/ALEXANDRIA).
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...AVS/LFR
MARINE...AVS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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