302
FXUS61 KLWX 141347
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
947 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
BEFORE STALLING TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH IN
ITS WAKE. AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COINCIDES WITH PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FARTHER NORTH, COVERAGE WILL
BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE KIAD 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS PWATS OF 2.02 INCHES AND MID & LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 80 PERCENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AND HELP TO FUEL SUCH CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CONDITIONS DRY OUT TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF IT IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND EAST TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE
POTOMAC AND CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND AREAS TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL STAY
IN THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CANADA, EXTENDING
TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 60S TO THE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOWER 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL LOWER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS/T-STORMS TIED TO THE INITIATION THE BAY/RIVER
BREEZE, AS WELL AS TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S FURTHER EAST
TOWARD THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, WITH SEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, AS WELL AS DAILY CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS, FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. VARIOUS DISTURBANCES MAY DESCEND
DOWN WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN WHAT WILL BE A HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS. SUNDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 90S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. ON FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING FOR KCHO. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT TO NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY, BLOWING AROUND 5 KNOTS. LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH NIGHTS.
CONVECTION OVERALL WILL BE FAIRLY SPOTTY THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY TEMPORARY SUB-VFR REDUCTIONS FROM SPOTTY
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS WILL BE AT
TERMINALS NEAR THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AT LESS THAN 15 KTS.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT EITHER
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BECOME NORTHERLY ON MONDAY.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH NO MARINE
HAZARDS EXPECTED. SMWS MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ON FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH.
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AT LESS
THAN 15 KTS. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION.
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BECOME NORTHERLY BY MONDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK GIVEN THE RECENT FULL MOON AND LIGHT WINDS. WHILE MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, SOME CYCLES COULD GO INTO ACTION
STAGE DURING THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES (ESPECIALLY AT
ANNAPOLIS AND PERHAPS DAHLGREN/ALEXANDRIA).
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS/LFR/KLW
SHORT TERM...AVS/KLW
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...KLW/KJP
MARINE...KLW/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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