211  
FXUS61 KLWX 141856  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
256 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY  
BEFORE STALLING TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD  
FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKING  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST  
AREA. PEAK HEATING WITH A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS COMBINED WITH  
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS YIELDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING,  
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.  
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTION AND COVERAGE WILL  
INHIBIT FLASH FLOODING THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER TO  
THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR  
THOSE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG AND EAST  
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE  
FORECAST AREA COME FRIDAY MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT  
SOUTH TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE NEARBY FRONT  
WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, MAINLY IN THE  
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTH,  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL EXTEND SOUTH OVER  
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES TO 40% OR LESS AND ADDITIONALLY PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER  
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE  
80S FOR MOST WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 70S.  
 
ON SATURDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD AS THE FRONT  
REMAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SURE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH NO  
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT  
SATURDAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR  
MOST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE HIGH SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY THAT THE  
AIRMASS TRAJECTORIES SHOULD BE MORE CONTINENTAL VERSUS MARINE,  
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE TO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. PRIMARY  
FORCING WITH A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH  
TO THE NORTH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A MINIMUM. HOWEVER,  
SOME REMNANT SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS  
FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA MONDAY. HOWEVER, IT MAY MAKE  
ENOUGH PROGRESS THAT THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RESIDE  
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT OR WAVER  
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD  
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH LATITUDE WAVE  
TRAIN WILL CAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE FROM THE  
CENTRAL US TO THE ROCKIES, RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE  
EAST COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A CLOUDIER AND COOLER  
SOLUTION, WITH ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS EAST  
OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, WITH THE STALLED FRONT NEARBY ALONG WITH  
TERRAIN FORCING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST  
EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT KCHO WHERE A FRONT WILL BE  
NEARBY. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN  
POSSIBLE. HAVE A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMRB WHERE  
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION VFR  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS  
TONIGHT TO EASTERLY ON FRIDAY, BLOWING AROUND 5 KNOTS. LIGHT  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH NIGHTS.  
 
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS WINDS REMAIN  
LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST. KCHO AND KMRB HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF  
SEEING AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, ALTHOUGH  
PRECIPITATION FARTHER EAST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
 
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A  
WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO SUB-VFR  
CEILINGS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND, GUSTING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY  
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY FRIDAY,  
BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY, WINDS REMAIN  
LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE  
WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SMWS POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY.  
NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS.  
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT OR  
MONDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK  
TO REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. EASTERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE TUESDAY, BUT  
IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK GIVEN THE RECENT FULL MOON AND LIGHT WINDS. WHILE MINOR  
TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, SOME CYCLES COULD GO INTO ACTION  
STAGE DURING THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES (ESPECIALLY AT  
ANNAPOLIS AND PERHAPS DAHLGREN/ALEXANDRIA).  
 

 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DC...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...AVS  
NEAR TERM...AVS  
SHORT TERM...AVS  
LONG TERM...ADS  
AVIATION...ADS/AVS  
MARINE...ADS/AVS  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX  
 
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