055
FXUS61 KLWX 150800 AAD
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION WILL
CONTINUE NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS FRONTAL ZONE EVENTUALLY STALLS NEARBY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN INITIALLY STALLED FRONTAL ZONE HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH A CURRENT POSITION ACROSS THE VIRGINIA
TIDEWATER REGION. LIKE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BOUNDARIES, THE POST-
FRONTAL AIR MASS STILL REMAINS QUITE MILD AND HUMID. AT 07Z/3
AM, A MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S, COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY BELOW THAT.
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS, A SATURATED AIR MASS, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD, PATCHY FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. SOME OF THIS MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES, BUT THE DURATION AND PERSISTENCE
OF THIS FOG SHOULD NOT WARRANT ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.
ANY RESIDUAL FOG SHOULD BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. GIVEN ELEVATED LEVELS OF MOISTURE DO NOT GET
COMPLETELY SCOURED OUT, A RISK OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON
THE 00Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL SUITE, THE FOCUS SHOULD BE ALONG
AND EAST OF U.S. 15. THERE MAY BE A NUMBER OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTIVE CELLS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MULTIPLE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. MORE SPECIFICALLY, LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES EXTEND TO
AROUND 800 MB ARE BOUNDED BY WESTERLIES UP TOP WITH A SIMILAR
MAGNITUDE. MOST SHOWERS THAT FIRE UP SHOULD BE POORLY ORGANIZED
WHILE DRIFTING OFF TOWARD THE EAST. AMPLE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME COLD POOL GENERATION, PARTICULARLY IN LIGHT
OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE (DCAPE) VALUES EXCEEDING 1,000 J/KG. SOME
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY FOR
ANY OF THE TALLER STORMS. MOST SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER
DARK WITH A DRY NIGHT AHEAD.
TODAY'S TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE WARMER SPOTS.
WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW 70S, THIS WILL CARRY
HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID 90S. POST-FRONTAL EASTERLIES BEGIN TO
WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELDS MAY INTRODUCE SOME LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH LOW/MID 60S ACROSS MOUNTAIN
LOCALES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH EARLIER SETTLES INTO THE VIRGINIA
TIDEWATER AREA EVENTUALLY TRACKS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. ATTACHED TO THIS BOUNDARY IS A SLOW
MOVING LOW CENTER WHICH IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WHILE THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION,
SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. MAINLY ISOLATED IN NATURE, SUCH SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
FOCUS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND CATOCTIN MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN A LACK OF ORGANIZATION, THESE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED AND NON-SEVERE IN NATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES STAY FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS DAY, ACCOMPANIED BY CONTINUED EASTERLY
WINDS. IF WINDS TURN LIGHT ENOUGH, SOME ADDITIONAL NIGHTTIME FOG
PRODUCTION IS POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S, WITH SOME LOW 70S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, MID/UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHTS FURTHER
BUILDING OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
BASED ON THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES BOX-AND-WHISKER PLOTS, SUNDAY
COULD PROVE TO BE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. A NUMBER OF
LOCATIONS MAY REACH 90 TO 93 DEGREES, WITH MID/UPPER 90S HEAT
INDICES GIVEN ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD, AS WELL AS NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS GO UP BY A COUPLE DEGREES, BUT
REMAIN QUITE SEASONABLE IN NATURE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ON MONDAY, OUR REGION WILL SIT BETWEEN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE
WEST AND A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH THROUGH DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE,
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A RESULT. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, AND
EVENTUALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES WEDGED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOCKED IN
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING BY IN NW FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER BEING WEST OF I-81, ROUGHLY WHERE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY WILL SETUP.
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY
UNCERTAIN IN REGARDS TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM ERIN. RIGHT
NOW, A LARGE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS ERIN OFFSHORE, WITH NO
IMPACTS TO THE REGION. ACTUALLY, IF CURRENT GUIDANCE HOLDS TRUE, WE
WILL BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBSIDENCE REGION OF THE
STORMS, KEEPING US QUITE DRY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP UP WITH THE
LATEST UPDATES AT HURRICANES.GOV HOWEVER, AS THE FORECAST CAN CHANGE
AT THIS TIME FRAME. IT IS NEVER A BAD IDEA DURING HURRICANE SEASON
TO PRACTICE YOUR PLAN AND BE READY FOR ONE, SHOULD ACTION BE
NECESSARY IN THE FUTURE.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KCHO AND KMRB. WHILE SOMEWHAT INTERMITTENT IN
NATURE, VISIBILITY LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO IFR AND MVFR AT
THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH AROUND 8-9 AM. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SHOW SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH MAY IMPACT MANY
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY, WILL
MAINTAIN PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS DURING
THE 19-22Z TIMEFRAME. EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE NIGHT MAY
ENCOURAGE SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS (MVFR TO IFR) OVER THE AREA.
FOR THE WEEKEND, ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE MORE TIED TO THE
TERRAIN. HOWEVER, A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD AFFECT KCHO OR
KMRB. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME
WITH POTENTIAL PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE WESTERLY TO FINISH OUT THE
WEEKEND.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AT MRB, BUT ELSEWHERE, IT SHOULD BE HARD TO GET THUNDER AS
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, FAVORING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MORE THAN THUNDERTORMS.
MARINE
BACKGROUND WIND FIELDS STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A FRONTAL ZONE SAGS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST, PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS. EVENTUALLY
WINDS TURN MORE VARIABLE EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
SOUTHERLY. THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS WELL TO THE WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BY MONDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED OVER THE
WATERS. EASTERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE TUESDAY, BUT IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN IF ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK GIVEN THE RECENT FULL MOON AND LIGHT WINDS. WHILE MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, SOME CYCLES COULD GO INTO ACTION
STAGE DURING THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES (ESPECIALLY AT
ANNAPOLIS AND PERHAPS DAHLGREN/ALEXANDRIA).
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...BRO/CJL
MARINE...BRO/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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