809
FXUS61 KLWX 070104
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
904 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
PROLONGED STRETCH OF COOLER WEATHER. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY BEFORE SETTLING TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THURSDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
AREA, AND NOW WE ARE SQUARELY IN THE ANAFRONTAL SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. BUILDING CLOUDS AND STRAY SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR SURGES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TO THE 40S IN THE ALLEGHENIES, AND MID 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS AND NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD FULFILL
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO SUNDAY
MORNING COULD OCCUR NEAR I-95 OR AREAS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE,
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR MOST. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
AND RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SEE LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. SOME HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS (I.E
BITTINGER, MD, CANAAN VALLEY, WV, AND MILL GAP, VA) COULD SEE
LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S.
SKIES WILL TREND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AMPLE DRY AIR ADVECTION
FUNNELING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
TOUCH WARMER THAN SUNDAY OWING TO MORE SUNSHINE. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID 40S AND MID 50S; URBAN
LOCATIONS AND LOCATIONS DIRECTLY ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL
SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WITH MOUNTAIN AREAS SEEING
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD
MAINLY BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL FAVOR
CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD INCLUDE SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD IN TIME WITH SOME
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT WILL RIDE ALONG A SURFACE FRONT STALLED
ALONG THE CAROLINA TO SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THE INCREASE IN LIFT
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD CARRY ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER TO AREAS EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON TUESDAY. THIS UPTICK IN CLOUDS LIKELY LINGERS
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. A 15 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALSO
EXISTS OVER FAR SOUTHERN MARYLAND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GRADUALLY SUCH CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS WILL PULL AWAY BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING LEADING TO A RETURN OF SUNSHINE DURING SUBSEQUENT
DAYS. A DECAYING SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
LOW/MID 70S THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE A DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY WIND
RETURNS READINGS TO THE LOW 80S ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER,
TEMPERATURES RETURN BACK INTO THE MID 70S INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEKEND. AS USUAL, THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE
AREA. AT NIGHT, AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAKE FOR SOME CHILLY
NIGHTS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER
40S.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES
PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA. CLOUDS LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS, EXCEPT FOR CHO WHERE IFR/MVFR IS
LIKELY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. LIGHTER NW TO NE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PERIOD. WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., A FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT MULTIPLE TIMES WHILE STARTING OFF
AS EASTERLY ON TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER, WINDS TURN A BIT MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A WEAK
SECONDARY FRONT.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT. LIGHTER NW TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND A
FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL INCREASE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TUESDAY; CONSEQUENTLY, SOME MARINE WINDS
COULD NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. GRADIENTS RELAX SOME
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A WIND SHIFT WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING WATER LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ531>534-537>543.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...KLW/DHOF/KRR
SHORT TERM...DHOF/KJP
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/KLW/KRR
MARINE...BRO/KLW/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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