312
FXUS61 KLWX 071853
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY, THEN
SETTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A
RETURN TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY REINFORCING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CUMULUS AND NIMBOSTRATUS CLOUDS, ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
A STRAY SHOWER WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEHIND THIS CLUSTER
OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, A BRIEF BREAK TO SUNSHINE WILL
BE OVERTAKEN BY STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHWEST
WIND WILL ALSO EVOLVE AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE 40S AND 50S BY LATE TONIGHT. COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WEDGING DOWN THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. A COASTAL FRONT COULD SPREAD
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WESTWARD TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND METRO
AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A DRY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP ALL OTHER AREAS DRY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BY MID-WEEK, THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN
QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN/EASTERN U.S. AND
RIDGING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST COAST HELPS INDUCE A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST. EVENTUALLY THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS PUSH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE NORTH, THIS ANTICYCLONE CENTER GETS
REINFORCED BEHIND THIS NEXT BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CHARGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, COOL MORNINGS, AND DRY WEATHER AHEAD.
ON WEDNESDAY, SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST
OF I-95. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THAT PASSING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. ANY SPOTTY SHOWER CHANCES WOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR SOUTHERN MARYLAND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. AFTER A
DAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S, A BIT OF A WARM UP ENSUES DURING SUBSEQUENT
DAYS AS WINDS SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS LIKELY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAK ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A FORECAST INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S (MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS). AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFF TO THE NORTH, WINDS NEXT WEEKEND TURN MORE
ONSHORE IN NATURE. THIS HELPS USHER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S, LOCALLY A BIT LOWER ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVEL WILL OVERCOME
THE SKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OR BECOME NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY IN GENERAL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY ANCHORS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. INITIAL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BEFORE SHIFTING
TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. GUSTS UP
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE RE-BUILDS TO THE NORTH, WINDS SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
BY FRIDAY.
MARINE
A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE CANCELLED OR ALLOW TO BE
CANCELLED THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS ARE DIMINISHING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER; A NEW SET OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MIDNIGHT TO 10 AM MONDAY FOR
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
A COASTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW. SOME CHANNELING EFFECTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS
GUSTS PUSH TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO. WINDS DIMINISH INTO THE NIGHT
BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE WATERS ON THURSDAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER RAMP UP IN WIND FIELDS AS THEY TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ531-538-540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ532>534-537-541>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ534-
537-543.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...KLW/DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/KLW
MARINE...BRO/KLW
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