430
FXUS61 KLWX 101432
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1032 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A DRY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES ON
THURSDAY, THEN ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO
SEND MOISTURE, LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WESTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION. LOW CLOUDS ARE ACTUALLY
SPREADING WEST ALL THE WAY TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. SOME
LATE DAY SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ALONG OR NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. COOL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RETURNING CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE N TO NNE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE TYPICAL SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND AREAS THAT FAVOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST, WITH LOW 60S
ALONG THE WATER AND IN THE METROS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PIVOTS OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK, WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVERHEAD WHILE THE CANADIAN MAINTAINS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
AREA MONDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH MIDDAY, WITH EXCEPTION TO MRB AND CHO WHERE
MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE WITHOUT THE DRIZZLE AND FOG. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE MOST LIKELY.
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST 15-20 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE'S A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY CEILINGS ERODE
AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER, VFR MAY NOT
RETURN AREA- WIDE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE N TO NNE CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EAST WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
MARINE
ENHANCED NNE WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
THE NORTH. AS A RESULT, SCAS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FOR THE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC ZONES. FOR THE UPPER/MIDDLE TIDAL
POTOMAC, WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT ALONG THE ADVISORY
THRESHOLD, ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED AS WELL AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY.
WINDS FINALLY START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE REGION,
BUT SOME GUSTS MAY LINGER ON THE WIDER WATERS.
SUB-SCA NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL YET AGAIN.
EAST WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BOTH DAYS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
DUE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST AND THE RECENT FULL
MOON, TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE COMING DAYS. NE WINDS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAY ASSIST IN LOCKING IN HIGHER
WATER LEVELS AND PUSHING THE WATER TOWARD THE WESTERN SHORE.
ALEXANDRIA, ANNAPOLIS, AND DAHLGREN ARE MOST LIKELY TO REACH
MINOR FLOOD STAGE, BUT SOME OTHER LOCATIONS MAY BE CLOSE.
ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCASIONALLY BE AN ISSUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NO REAL PATTERN CHANGE IN
SIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...KLW/CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/KLW/CJL
MARINE...AVS/KLW/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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