979
FXUS61 KLWX 110140
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. A DRY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY, THEN ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST,
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE 00Z IAD SOUNDING INDICATES
MOISTURE IS BELOW 700 MB. THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT CONTINUES TO RESULT IN PATCHY
DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS, AS SEEN VIA RADAR AND REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS. MODELS INDICATE THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF THIS
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
CLOUD COVER MAY TEND TO RETRACT TO THE EAST THOUGH, AND THIS
WILL SERVE AS THE LIMITING FACTOR TO WHERE FOG CAN FORM. TO THE
WEST, MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, AND SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
WIDESPREAD. THERE COULD BE SOME 40S IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND
LOWER 60S EAST OF I-95.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME TOO.
EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND AREAS
THAT FAVOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. LOWER 60S ALONG THE WATERS AND IN THE
METROS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ONE CUTOFF TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
BE REPLACED BY A DEEPER/STRONGER ONE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY AND REINFORCE THE COOL WX
PATTERN THAT WE HAVE SEEN SINCE EARLY AUGUST. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
CHANCE OF ANY RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS VERY LOW WITH ANY
RAINFALL IN THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS. RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT
BUILDS IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING CONTINUED DRY/FAIR
WEATHER.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD GRADUALLY RETREAT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS DCA/BWI/MTN. CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
HAS THE LOWEST CEILINGS LIFTING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT,
BUT THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. PATCHY DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT
THE AREA TOO, AND MODELS INDICATED THIS MAY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE, EVEN TO
IFR, WHEN THE DRIZZLE PASSES THROUGH. MRB AND CHO MAY ULTIMATELY
SEE SOME FOG THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR,
ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR VISIBILITY DROPS. FOG COULD
FORM AT IAD IF SKIES CAN CLEAR BEFORE DAWN.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL AREAS MID-MORNING THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BECOMING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOW LIMITED TO THE WIDER WATERS. WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE THERE BY MIDNIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.
SCA CONDTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
DUE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST, TIDES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE COMING DAYS. ANOMALIES ARE TRICKLING DOWN A
LITTLE AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SLACKENING
WINDS MAY ALLOW SOME WATER TO SLOSH NORTHWARD THURSDAY, WITH
MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE APPRECIABLY, SO SPOTTY
MARGINALLY MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY SINCE WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ533-534-
537-543.
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...ADS/KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/KLW
MARINE...ADS/LFR/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS
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