587
FXUS61 KLWX 121357 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
957 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEDGING
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WORKS ALONG THE COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TO THE NORTH PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES,
WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW HUMIDITY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM
THE NORTH AROUND 5 MPH.
PREVIOUS AFD...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY TODAY AT THE SURFACE WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS PUSHED A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH YESTERDAY, BUT WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TODAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR, REACHING THE 50S FOR MOST (60S
IN THE METROS AND NEAR THE WATERS). SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE 70S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST WITH THOSE NEAR THE
METRO AREAS STAYING IN THE 60S.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ON SUNDAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO THE MID 80S FOR MOST.
OTHERWISE, PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SYNOPTICALLY, A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE BACK OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
FESTERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY AT
THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST. MEANWHILE, 500 MB RIDGING WILL SIT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BASICALLY, THIS
IS A REX BLOCK SETUP WITH THE WEDGING HIGH TO THE NORTH HOLDING THE
CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA/CAROLINA
COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING FOR SOME TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY BEFORE
STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY DRAPED AT THE COAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EVEN
WITH THAT SAID, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT,
TRACK, LOCATION, AND TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW, WE COULD SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT, SOUTHERN MD, AND THE
NORTHERN NECK OF VA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
WOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH POPS
CAPPED AT LESS THAN 25 PERCENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HELP WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE A RECORD DRY AUGUST AND DRY START
TO EARLY SEPTEMBER. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE CONCERN
FOR INCREASED WINDS GIVEN LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE COAST AND
WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE HERE IS ALSO LOW
GIVEN THE TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW IN RELATIONSHIP
TO THE WEDGING HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE
PERIOD BEFORE FALLING BACK TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE NEW WORKWEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
PUSHES ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE I-95 METROS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S
AND 60S WITH A SLIGHT DEWPOINT RISE MIDWEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC INCREASES.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WINDS SHIFT OUT TO EASTERLY THIS THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHIFT SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING IN MOST OF THE
SAME SPOTS.
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEDGING HIGH
PRESSURE NEARBY. OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WORKS ALONG THE COAST
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES OFF THE ATLANTIC. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.
MARINE
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHIFT SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA EACH
DAY, BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEDGING
HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN TO THE MIDDLE AND
OPEN WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
NORTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
DUE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST, TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ANOMALIES ARE TRICKLING DOWN A
LITTLE AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HOWEVER, SLACKENING WINDS
MAY ALLOW SOME WATER TO SLOSH NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE APPRECIABLY, SO SPOTTY
MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SINCE WINDS
EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEXT WEEK
AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...AVS/DHOF/CJL
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...AVS/LFR
MARINE...AVS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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