034
FXUS61 KLWX 130737
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
337 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY, WITH
THE WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENING OVER THE AREA. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK MAINTAINING THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM FALL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY, THOUGH WE STILL
REMAIN IN A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT BRINGS SOME HIGH CLOUDS, THOUGH WE STILL SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT SETTLE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE STEADY WARMING TREND PEAKS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY, BRINGING A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND
SHIFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S MONDAY AS MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD
OVERSPREADS THE AREA DUE TO MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS A
BIT MILDER IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FUTURE OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE
TOWARD OR AROUND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
COULD EITHER (1) BE SHUNTED OUT TO SEA, (2) DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE
COAST, OR (3) SIMPLY DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD UNTIL THE HIGH WEAKENS.
RAIN CHANCES FROM THE NBM INCREASED A BIT DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THEY ARE NOW AT 20-40
PCT. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY. INDIVIDUAL
MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW RATHER SIGNIFICANT SPREAD; A GOOD
NUMBER OF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY, BUT A FEW OF THEM DRAW THE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BACK WEST RESULTING IN
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS WEEKEND BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. LOWER CLOUD
BASES ARE LIKELY MONDAY, THOUGH STILL VFR.
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN PERIODIC LOWER CIGS AND RAIN CHANCES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
MOSTLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAIN
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IN THE MIDDLE
CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD BRING GUSTS NEAR SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST ON MONDAY, THEN START TO INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS.
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE GRADIENT, SCAS MAY BE NEEDED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LIGHT FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME EXCESS WATER SLOSHING AROUND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD KEEP ANOMALIES STEADY OR CAUSE
THEM TO RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY. FLOW THEN TURNS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE FLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY INCREASE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...DHOF
AVIATION...KRR/DHOF
MARINE...KRR/DHOF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF
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