265
FXUS61 KLWX 131419
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1019 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENING OVER THE AREA. A
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK MAINTAINING THE DRY WEATHER
PATTERN. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS OFFSHORE, THOUGH WE STILL
REMAIN IN A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT BRINGS SOME HIGH CLOUDS, THOUGH WE STILL SEE LOTS
OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT SETTLE IN THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STEADY WARMING TREND PEAKS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND SHIFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S MONDAY AS
MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD OVERSPREADS THE AREA DUE TO MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MILDER IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FUTURE OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE
TOWARD OR AROUND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
COULD EITHER (1) BE SHUNTED OUT TO SEA, (2) DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE
COAST, OR (3) SIMPLY DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD UNTIL THE HIGH WEAKENS.
RAIN CHANCES FROM THE NBM INCREASED A BIT DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THEY ARE NOW AT 20-40
PCT. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY. INDIVIDUAL
MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW RATHER SIGNIFICANT SPREAD; A GOOD
NUMBER OF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY, BUT A FEW OF THEM DRAW THE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BACK WEST RESULTING IN
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS WEEKEND BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST
ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
CANADA. LOWER CLOUD BASES ARE LIKELY MONDAY, THOUGH STILL VFR.
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN PERIODIC LOWER CIGS AND RAIN CHANCES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IN
THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD BRING GUSTS NEAR SCA LEVELS THIS
EVENING. WINDS SHIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST ON MONDAY, THEN START TO
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE GRADIENT, SCAS MAY BE NEEDED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIGHT FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME EXCESS WATER SLOSHING AROUND
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD KEEP ANOMALIES
STEADY OR CAUSE THEM TO RISE SLIGHTLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FLOW THEN TURNS TO THE NORTH AND EAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KLW/KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...DHOF
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/KRR
MARINE...KLW/DHOF/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLW/KRR
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