238
FXUS61 KLWX 140038
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
838 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE
CURRENT ONE AS IT BUILDS SOUTH FROM ONTARIO DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK MAINTAINING THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN. A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS UP ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD, AND
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT
MID- HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MAY
BEGIN TO THIN OUT AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WEAKENS FURTHER. WINDS INITIALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WILL GO CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS LATER TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY, BRINGING A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER
80S MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH AND EAST AS LOW PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE MILDER WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
ONLY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TUE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BEGINS TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES, LIGHT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS TUE EVENING AND IMPACT AREAS EAST OF
ROUTE 15 THROUGH WED BEFORE EXITING LATE WED NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS UP TO HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE, PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH IN
SOUTHERN ST. MARY'S COUNTY. LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES BY FRI. THEN, A
SHARP COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CUTOFF LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
NEXT SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AS EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.
MARINE
WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT A
FEW SPORADIC GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING THIS EVENING. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANOMALIES STEADY OR CAUSE THEM TO
RISE SLIGHTLY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
ANNAPOLIS FOR THE TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING. FLOW THEN TURNS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR
TIDAL FLOODING MAY INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KLW/KRR
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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