430
FXUS61 KLWX 141434 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1034 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM ONTARIO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WORK WEEK, MAINTAINING THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN. A COASTAL LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA BY MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
VERY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 WITH SCATTERED CU AND
HIGH CLOUDS UNDER WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.
PREVIOUS AFD..
WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WITH TROUGHING
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S THIS AFTERNOON, AND LOWER 80S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TODAY BECOME
EASTERLY MONDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
NORTH. ALOFT, A LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND MEANDERS OVER THAT REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE INTERACTION OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A WEAK COASTAL LOW IS LIKELY TO FORM OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS, THEN
SLOWLY MEANDER INLAND ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE VA
TIDEWATER/EASTERN SHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
REGARDLESS, WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" FOR CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD,
AND POSSIBLY UP INTO THE SOUTHERN DC METRO. ELSEWHERE, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS ARE FORECAST. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTH/WEST THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS, THESE RAIN AMOUNTS COULD
INCREASE. THE HIGHER-END ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOULD A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF RAIN ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BREEZY, COOLER, AND CLOUDY ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
LOW 70S TO MID 70S. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO BE IN
WESTERN MD WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AFTER A LENGTHY STRETCH OF MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER, A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MAKE FOR
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE DEGREE OF
SUNSHINE, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD YIELD ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A COOLER SCENARIO OWING TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S, WITH 60S
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ENSEMBLE BOX-AND-WHISKER PLOTS SHOW THERE IS
STILL SOME ROOM FOR THE GUIDANCE TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER (UPPER
60S).
BY THURSDAY, THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE NATION'S MID-SECTION.
CONSEQUENTLY, THIS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BEGINS TO PULL NORTHWARD
WHILE EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. THE RESULT IS A RETURN OF DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING WARMTH. ANY INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. IS LIKELY TO NOT BE FELT UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER GIVEN THE
BLOCKY NATURE OF THE MID-LATITUDE PATTERN.
THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND, EXPECT WARM AND DRY WEATHER AHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN
WELL INTO THE 80S WHICH IS AROUND 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOMETIME ON TUESDAY AS A COASTAL LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND
PERSIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR CIGS AND LOWER
VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME
RESTRICTIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE CLOUD CEILINGS ARE UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT, IT CERTAINLY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT MVFR CLOUD DECKS COULD
PERSIST DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE. PREVAILING WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTH. WINDS TURN
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE IN NATURE.
MARINE
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TO BEGIN SOMETIME ON TUESDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TIGHTENS. A
COASTAL LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE, THEN
PUSH TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER BY MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY STARTING MONDAY EVENING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERWAYS ON WEDNESDAY
AS A CLOSED LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. WIND FIELDS SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, ALSO SOME GUSTY SHOWERS COULD BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS. MARINE WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTH AND EAST HEADING INTO THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE ONSHORE WINDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TIDAL FLOODING BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ534-537-543.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...LFR/BRO
MARINE...LFR/BRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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