535
FXUS61 KLWX 150116
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MAINTAINING THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN. A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MIDWEEK BRINGING
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED WELL TO OUR NORTH WHILE A
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN UP ALONG THE NC COAST THIS
EVENING. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE
REGION, BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR MOST, BUT MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL, GIVEN INCREASED DEW POINTS IN ONSHORE FLOW.
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY, MAINTAINING A DRY WEATHER PATTERN. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ALSO ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DUE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE ARE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.
THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT COULD BRING RAIN TO
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY, BUT INCREASED CLOUDCOVER
WILL BE THE MAIN NOTICEABLE IMPACT FROM THIS LOW FOR MOST MONDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE FASTER AND WETTER TREND SINCE 48 HRS
AGO WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN IS NOW
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOONER ON TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND
SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD. THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE IT BEGINS TO FILL
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS
DURING THE PAST 45 DAYS AND THE LONG DURATION OF THE PRECIP
EVENT, THIS RAIN WILL BE MORE THAN WELCOME INTO OUR AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A CLOSED-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER ON THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SIDE OVER OUR
REGION ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO EXIT AS WELL. THE RAIN WILL
OBVIOUSLY BE BENEFICIAL AND SHOULD NOT BE A FLOOD PROBLEM, NOR
A SEVERE THREAT. SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL
POTOMAC WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND TO AVERAGE
WITH THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND EXITING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BEHIND A BACKDOOR DRY COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD HELP TO KICK THE
CLOSED-OFF LOW PRESSURE OUT TO SEA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
LITTLE TO NO SHOWERS WITH THE DRY FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND IN THE LOWER 80S.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. INCREASING LOW CLOUDS TUE EVENING
WITH LIGHT RAIN AND CIG RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING NORTH
5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. WILL BE ADJUSTING THE SCA
FOR STRONGER WINDS ARRIVING SOONER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO
MARINE HAZARDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING NORTH 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTH AND EAST HEADING INTO THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE ONSHORE WINDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TIDAL FLOODING BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE TREND DURING THE PAST 24 HRS HAS
BEEN FOR STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS ARRIVING SOONER RATHER THAN
LATER. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING SEEMS MORE LIKELY BEGINNING EARLY
TUE AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ534-537-543.
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/CJL
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR
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