365
FXUS61 KLWX 151417 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1017 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MAINTAINING THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MIDWEEK BRINGING BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY, BUT REMAINING DRY FOR ONE MORE
DAY. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ST.
MARY'S COUNTY AND SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL BELTWAY BY DAYBREAK TUE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE MID 80S.
PREVIOUS AFD...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TODAY, THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
FOR ONE MORE DAY THOUGH IT WON'T BE AS WARM AS IT WAS THIS PAST
WEEKEND. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MORE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER QUICKLY DEVELOPING. A COASTAL LOW OFF THE
CAROLINAS SLOWLY MEANDERS TOWARD OUTER BANKS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. SOME SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD TONIGHT, THOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
ERODE THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE SO MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS
DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S WITH A STEADY EASTERLY
BREEZE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES INLAND INTO FAR EASTERN NC, THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS
BACK OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH, MEANING WE LIKELY WON'T
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. STILL,
WE WILL SEE PASSING SHOWERS MOVE IN TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WEST
OF I-95, WITH THREE QUARTERS TO AN INCH OF RAIN EAST OF I-95. BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH AND UP TO 30 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. RAIN COOLED
CONDITIONS AND CLOUDY SKIES KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE LOWER AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
HIGHS REALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO 70F, WITH DRIZZLY
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL DAY. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA, WITH RAIN
CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ON THURSDAY MORNING, A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PULLING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE LOCAL WEATHER DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE UNTIL OVER THE WEEKEND.
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE F3IRST HALF OF
THURSDAY. THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN BY
THE POSITION OF THE SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW CENTER. HOWEVER, IT DOES
APPEAR ANY SUCH SHOWERS WILL LARGELY FOCUS EAST OF I-95 AND BE
CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS. IN THE WAKE, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BE FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS
FOR WIDESPREAD MID 80S, WITH SOME SPOTTY UPPER 80S. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, 70S ARE MORE LIKELY. AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOME ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THIS
WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT, ANY RAIN CHANCES ARE LARGELY IN THE 15 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW/MID
70S EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME EAST TO
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT SOME POINT TUESDAY DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS. THESE RESTRICTIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW, A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW RESIDUAL RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE BALTIMORE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. MULTIPLE WINDS SHIFTS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. INITIAL NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY THEREAFTER.
MARINE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN
THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE INTERACTION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS
LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GUST
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE WATERS, WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE-
FORCE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE.
WINDS START TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY, BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL GRADIENTS REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE WHICH SHOULD KEEP MARINE
WIND GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED, POSSIBLY UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE WINDS,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TIDAL FLOODING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE TREND FOR STRONGER WINDS CONTINUES, WITH WINDS PEAKING TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING SEEMS MORE
LIKELY BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-541-542.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...LFR/BRO
MARINE...LFR/BRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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