199
FXUS61 KLWX 151915
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM QUEBEC THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
MIDWEEK BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND BECOME DENSER
OVERNIGHT. RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL APPROACH ST. MARY'S COUNTY
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN FURTHER ON TUE WITH RAIN OR
SHOWERS SLOWLY SPREADING FURTHER NW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE ROUTE 15 CORRIDOR BY TUE EVENING.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AS COASTAL
LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT THE AREA WED NIGHT WITH THE RAIN/SHOWERS ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST WED NIGHT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST HALF TO INCH
AND HALF OF RAIN MAY FALL ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER OR ABOVE
AVERAGE PRIOR TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE
REGION FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE LATER SUNDAY
AND MAINLY IN THE APPALACHIANS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED ALONG WITH OFF
AND ON RAIN/SHOWERS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE TUE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST
BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ONCE THE BACKDOOR
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND LIGHT.
MARINE
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AFTERNOON AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.
NO MARINE HAZARDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BECOMING NORTH NORTHERLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE WINDS, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR TIDAL FLOODING TUE NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-541-542.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR
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