718
FXUS61 KLWX 121409
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1009 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. THE LOW, ALONG WITH
UPPER ENERGY FROM THE WEST, WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
CHANNEL 9/10 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 12Z IAD SOUNDING
INDICATE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THAT IS THE REASON WHY SO FAR PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN. A BAND OF MORE
NOTABLE RAIN EXTENDS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MARYLAND BUT LIKELY
WON'T MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. LIKELY WON'T
NEED TO MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST HAS STALLED. TO THE
NORTH, A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE OUTER BANKS WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 35-40 KT. THIS
FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH MODELS INDICATING A SECOND SURFACE LOW IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE DELMARVA BY TONIGHT. ALOFT, TWO
SEPARATE CUTOFF LOWS (ONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE OTHER
OVER NY) REMAIN MOSTLY SEPARATED, WITH ANY PHASING NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL MONDAY.
THE INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS NOW WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE, WITH A DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN THE RAIN BAND TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP IS GOING TO REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF
OUR AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD,
NOW ONLY AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH (IF THAT), WITH UP TO
ONE INCH POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES NOW STAND AROUND 40-60 PCT FOR TODAY
WHERE IT'S NOT CURRENTLY RAINING. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PASSING SHOWERS / PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH, GUSTING 25-35 MPH, AND POSSIBLY UP TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE.
WINDS DECREASE A BIT INTO TONIGHT, BUT STILL GUSTING AROUND
20-30 MPH.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE TWO MID-LEVEL CUTOFFS PHASE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW EAST OF SOUTHERN NJ
WILL RETROGRADE CLOSER TO THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THIS BRINGS A SECOND, THOUGH LESSER, SURGE IN WINDS FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN THIS LIKELY WILL BE
FOCUSED IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LOW ITSELF (SO LOOKING AT AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-95). A VERY COOL MONDAY FOR MOST AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 60S ONCE AGAIN. SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE GOING TO BE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE HIGHS COULD APPROACH 70F IN
THE ALLEGHENIES AND SOUTH OF STAUNTON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE PHASED UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
DRAGGING THE COASTAL LOW AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE LOW'S DEPARTURE, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S. STILL A BIT BREEZY AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUST
AROUND 20-25 MPH. CLEARER SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS SETTLE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND 50S TO THE EAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS QUITE AMPLIFIED.
ON WEDNESDAY, A FORMIDABLE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA INTO THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THIS OCCURS, A BROAD
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL. WHILE DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH,
THIS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY SHOULD DESCEND UPON THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN
FAVORS DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY BEFORE A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR NEXT SUNDAY.
THE SURFACE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE IS SLATED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE CALIBER OF HIGH PRESSURE DOES WEAKEN IN TIME ON ITS
SOUTHEASTWARD APPROACH TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES DROP TO
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
(UPPER 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS). OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
AT NIGHT WILL MAKE FOR FROSTY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THE LATTER NIGHT COULD PROVE TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN NATURE
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. A RETURN
FLOW ON SATURDAY AIDS IN A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COASTAL LOW TRACKING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT IS GOING TO PRODUCE STEADY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE COMMONPLACE, THOUGH
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD KEEP THEM IN THE MVFR CATEGORY DURING THE
DAYTIME (WITH CHO LIKELY LIFTING THERE SHORTLY). THEN THE
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP AGAIN TONIGHT. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL DROP VISIBILITY TO 3-5SM,
THOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE CONSIDERABLE DRY TIME TODAY.
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PEAK THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT, BUT STILL GUSTING
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AMIDST VFR CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON GUSTS
COULD NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE
EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IS ONGOING AND
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS, EXCEPT THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER WHERE SCAS ARE IN EFFECT.
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE GRADUALLY RAMPING UP, WITH GUSTS AROUND
30-40 KNOTS IN THE WATERS UNDER THE GALE WARNING AND AROUND
25-30 KNOTS IN THE SCA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GALE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH A SECOND SURGE OF GALES IS POSSIBLE
IN THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AFTER THE GALES
EXPIRE TO COVER THE LONG PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THAT CONTINUES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT MAINLY
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE WATERWAYS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING,
PERHAPS LONGER OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY GIVEN NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDE LEVELS HAVE REMAINED STEADY EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH THE
FORECAST ITSELF IS STILL TRICKY GIVEN THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. WATER WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE
ESTUARY TODAY, BECOMING TRAPPED BY THE NORTHEAST WINDS.
HOWEVER, THOSE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO TEND TO KEEP
THIS SURGE SHOVED TO THE SOUTH. NEVERTHELESS, MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT MANY SENSITIVE LOCATIONS FROM ANNAPOLIS
SOUTH AND AT ALEXANDRIA.
MODELS STILL SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES AT HIGH TIDE
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE A TIGHT
GRADIENT OF WATER LEVELS TODAY, AS WATER IS PUSHED OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE BAY, BUT PILES UP IN THE SOUTHERN HALF (ALONG
WITH THE POTOMAC). WHILE THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED TO KEEP TIDE
LEVELS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE, THERE IS STILL A NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING OCCURS THIS EVENING IN SOME SPOTS.
ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM, STRONG N/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
PUSH TIDES OUT RAPIDLY, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO BLOWOUT CONDITIONS.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS LESS SUGGESTIVE OF THIS OUTCOME HOWEVER, WITH
HIGH WATERS LEVELS POTENTIALLY SLOSHING BACK NORTHWARD AND LEADING
TO ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ057.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530-
531-538-539.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538-539.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...ADS/KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...ADS/BRO/KRR
MARINE...ADS/BRO/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR/ADS
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