210
FXUS61 KLWX 130136
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OUT TO SEA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS WILL MEANDER NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE SAME PERIOD. AS FOR
TONIGHT, A SEPARATE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL
CREATE A FEW PERIODS OF DRIZZLE, A PASSING SHOWER, OR AT THE
VERY LEAST LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT 25 TO 30 MPH.
HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE COASTAL LOW WILL GRADUALLY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AS THE TWO COME IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
EACH OTHER. PRECIPITATION THAT RESULTS FROM THE DUAL LOW WILL BE
MAINLY LIGHT AND COULD BE PERSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE CONSTANT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHEAST VIRGINIA AND UP INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS WELL ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MAGNITUDES OF 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EVEN
A FEW BREAKS OF SUN, SO TEMPERATURES MAY SNEAK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN THESE AREAS.
THE PHASED UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW THE SURFACE LOW PIVOTS AROUND,
OR IF A SECOND ONE EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS. THAT MIGHT AFFECT HOW
LONG PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUDS HANG AROUND. OVERALL, RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT, WITH CLOUDS FINALLY
CLEARING ON TUESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, BUT WINDS
WON'T BE QUITE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASED
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A VERY STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DIVE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION, PUSHING A PRETTY DECENT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION, ALBEIT DRY IN NATURE. AGAIN, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S (LOW 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS), BUT
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S FOR MOST (50S IN THE MOUNTAINS). COULD BE LOOKING AT
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH FINALLY
STARTS TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST, MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW
FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, AND THEN MUCH WARMER BY
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY REACH THE MID 60S BEFORE JUMPING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY, MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL
FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. HAVE KEPT TAFS MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN MOS/LAMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN MVFR
VS. IFR. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR IFR ARE VERY LOW, AND ELEVATED
SUSTAINED WINDS (POTENTIALLY REMAINING 10-15 KT) MAY PREVENT
CEILINGS FROM LOWERING. DID MAINTAIN A PERIOD IFR MONDAY
MORNING, AS PERSISTENT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AID IN
SATURATION. OTHERWISE, NORTHERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY PERSIST MONDAY
NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR.
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ONCE AGAIN. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED HOWEVER,
WITH NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING EACH AFTERNOON.
MARINE
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STILL BE NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS ALONG THE BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH HIGH END
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH. THE THREAT OF GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A
RENEWAL OF GALE CONDITIONS ALONG THE MIDDLE BAY MONDAY EVENING
INTO POTENTIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE DELMARVA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR
EXTENDING THE WARNING AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW PIVOTS AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES OUT TO SEA.
BY WEDNESDAY, WINDS TURN A BIT MORE NW AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, DO STILL EXPECT
FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, SO SCAS
REMAIN LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AS WELL, WITH SCAS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS ARE NOW STEADILY CLIMBING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. HOWEVER, STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO
TEND TO KEEP THE HIGHER SURGE SHOVED TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGHEST
DEPARTURES IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND LOWER POTOMAC.
THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW LONG THE SURGE REMAINS IN PLACE.
ADVISORIES FOR DAHLGREN AND SOLOMONS TO THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST, BUT OTHER LOCATIONS MAY
REACH MINOR FLOOD AS WELL.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVE TO THE DELMARVA MONDAY, STRONG N/NW WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO PUSH TIDES OUT RAPIDLY, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
BLOWOUT CONDITIONS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS LESS SUGGESTIVE OF
THIS OUTCOME HOWEVER, WITH HIGH WATERS LEVELS POTENTIALLY
SLOSHING BACK NORTHWARD AND LEADING TO ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ054.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538-539.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/KLW
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...KLW/CJL
MARINE...KLW/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLW
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