263
FXUS61 KLWX 131411
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1011 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
KLWX RADAR LOOP AS OF 10AM SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION/DRIZZLE MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN BE OBSERVED
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE 12Z IAD
SOUNDING SHOWS SATURATED CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW
LEVEL RH OF 96 PERCENT PAIRED WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED IN SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS THIS MORNING, STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO EAST
OF THE DELMARVA. A CLOSED SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
MORNING WITHIN THE BROAD FRONTAL ZONE THAT SPANS FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO LONG ISLAND. THE LOW THEN DRIFTS TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN NJ/DE THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT, TWO TROUGHS WILL PHASE
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY TONIGHT, THEN MOVE OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL FINALLY DRAG THE COASTAL LOW OUT TO SEA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE IS GOING TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, THEN IT MAINLY FOCUSES IN THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DUE TO THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE RAIN,
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
OTHER AREAS TO THE WEST COULD SEE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE, BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING RAINFALL.
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. PEAK GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 25-30 MPH. COOL CONDITIONS AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, EXCEPT FOR AREAS SOUTH/WEST OF I-64 WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE LETS TEMPS RISE TO THE UPPER 60S.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL LOW START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AS PRECIP STARTS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST. A DRIZZLE
LIKELY HANGS ON ALONG/EAST OF I-95 FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT, THEN TAPERS
OFF AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT SETTLE IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S, WITH 40S IN THE ALLEGHENIES.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO MOST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS HIGHS WARM
TO THE LOWER 70S. CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES HANG AROUND ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN IT SHOULD BE DRY FOR ALL
LOCATIONS COME TUESDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
SCOURING OUT ANY LINGERING PRECIP AND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH TUESDAY NIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25 MPH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TURNING COLDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS DROP TO
THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. SOME SPOTS IN THE ALLEGHENIES COULD DROP TO
THE MID 30S, THOUGH FROST IS NOT LIKELY AS WINDS STAY ELEVATED
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD, REDUCED SKY COVER AND
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD,
RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR LEADING TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH LOWS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST. FOR THE
WEEKEND, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL YIELD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S.
AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL MEANDER IN THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE ARE GOING TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY,
BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TERMINALS. WINDS INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS, OCCASIONALLY UP TO 30 KNOTS.
THIS SHOULD HELP BRING CIGS UP TO MVFR AND MAYBE VFR FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AT CHO AND MRB TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND
LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. HOWEVER, IFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
ARE EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST AROUND 20
TO 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BLOWING 5 TO 10
KNOTS. ON FRIDAY, WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, BLOWING 5 TO
10 KNOTS WITH GUST UP TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE METRO TERMINALS.
MARINE
GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO WANE THIS MORNING, SO THE GALE WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. AS THE COASTAL LOW DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE
DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON, THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT SURGE IN WINDS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DUE TO NORTHERLY CHANNELING.
THIS COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE, BUT THAT WILL BE
HANDLED WITH A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT AS IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PERSISTENT. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOLLOW THE GALES THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR ALL THE WATERS AS WINDS GUST BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS.
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, SO EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS
OVER THE WATERS GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH GRADUALLY ON
FRIDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS AND NO OTHER MARINE HAZARDS ARE FORECAST.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE REMAINED STEADY EARLY THIS MORNING, AND EVEN
DROPPED A BIT IN SOME LOCATIONS. ANY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND DAHLGREN, STRAITS POINT, SOLOMON'S ISLAND FOR HIGH
TIDE LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD PEAK
IN ACTION STAGE OR BELOW ANY FLOOD STAGE.
THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STRONG N/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
PUSH TIDES OUT RAPIDLY, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO BLOWOUT CONDITIONS.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS LESS SUGGESTIVE OF THIS OUTCOME. BEYOND THAT
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERS LEVELS SLOSHING BACK NORTHWARD
AND LEADING TO ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...AVS/KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/KRR
MARINE...AVS/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR
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